Not apparently going down:
Figure 1: CPI-food at home (blue), PPI-food (tan), both in logs 2021M01=0. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.
Since the Mexican tariffs are still on the table (I guess – not sure if the reciprocal tariff concept of a plan supersedes), one could still see a big jump in the CPI-food at home.
Way off topic – disposing of Ukraine:
The felon-in-chief tells us he wants the war in Ukraine to end. He tells us he has been in frequent contact with Putin, frequent enough that he’d better not say how often. His alcohol-soaked Defense Secretary has ruled out a U.S. or NATO security guarantee for Ukraine, and said Ukraine must allow Russia to keep land taken from Ukraine through violence – all contrary to Ukrainian interests and all before negotiations have even begun.
Recall that the rapist-in-chief negotiated U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan with the Taliban only, keeping the actual government of Afghanistan out of the loop. The Taliban violated their side of the agreement, with no consequences. It is looking like Ukraine is in for the same treatment if Trump gets his way. Ukraine’s interests could be negotiated away without Ukraine having a say in the outcome. Maybe.
Fortunately for Ukraine, Putin’s puppet isn’t in charge. Ukraine has friends in Europe and it’s own very capable military. So when Trump tries to sell Ukraine out, it may not go smoothly.