The House Budget, as expected, is not a serious document — see the tables. I’ll skip the fantasy spending cuts, and focus on revenue plans. From CRFB:
The budget resolution assumes $2.6 trillion of macroeconomic feedback, which press reports have indicated is a result of boosting average annual growth to 2.8 percent from a projected 1.8 percent. If one were to assume the House budget’s $2.6 trillion of economic feedback from 2.8 percent average annual growth and $3.3 trillion of net deficit increases, debt would reach 105 percent of GDP by 2034 and the deficit would total 5.6 percent of GDP in 2034.
Here’s a comparison of various estimates compared to the House plan’s estimate.
Notes: Modified by author to match current estimates of dynamic response. Source: CRFB.
The assumed dynamic feedback requires a tremendous supply side response. To see how this alternative worldview compares to CBO current law projection, see Figure 1.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO projection (light blue), House budget assumed growth (red), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA advance, CBO January 2025, and author’s calculations.
It’s not surprising that the plan is so crazy. Clearly, it’s a linear descendent of the RSG document.
This is simply the next step in writing down results before doing the work that is is claimed to result in those results. It’s the Republican way.
And it doesn’t matter. Their voters either don’t care, don’t understand, or both. They are so far down that path that they can’t come back. Imagine telling their base that government is beneficial, regulations are valuable, vaccines work and that public schools are an essential ingredient in our prosperity. Primaried. Out. Done.