Remember when Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni posted on X this graph?
Well, I think a lot of the puzzle has been resolved with new population controls, and the benchmarked NFP, plus taking into account the fact that coverage differs, with civilian employment covering farm workers and self-employed. Note below I use the civilian employment (CPS) series adjusted to NFP concept for comparability.
Figure 1: NFP December 2024 release (blue), NFP January 2025 post-benchmark revision release (bold dark blue), household survey employment adjusted to NFP concept December 2024 release (tan), household survey employment adjusted to NFP concept incorporating smoothed population controls and reported January 2025 observation (bold dark red), all in thousands, s.a., on log scale. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS1, BLS2.
Hence the 12 month differential growth gap that EJ Antoni mentioned (for NFP vs. total civilian employment) for October 2024 of 2 million has shrunk to 0.9 million. The 12 month differential as of January 2025 is -0.063 million.
I tried to get this point to him repeatedly in the past, to no avail.
And yet, Dr. Antoni is still claiming that Biden bequeathed to Trump a terrible economy…
There is no economics in Antoni’s economics. It’s all just assertion, all a repetition of felon-in-chief talking points.
There’s no economics in Antoni’s economics, because there needn’t be. His audience wants reinforcement, not information. The voting public chose a convicted felon, an insurrectionist, as president for the first time in U.S. history. Those who voted for him will eat up any justification for having done that. That’s who we are now.
Speaking of egg prices :
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-officials-influence-cdc-mmwr/
The felon-in-chief has ordered the CDC not to cover bird flu, among other things, in its weekly publication, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
The business press is taking the risk of bird flu seriously, despite efforts to hide information about it:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-13/bird-flu-threat-is-growing-with-new-strain-and-ways-to-spread
Trump smooched the pooch when Covid arrived during his first term. He’s only interested in doing the stuff he likes, and he doesn’t do disease control; it’s boring. Biden cleaned up the mess, and in thanks, voters dumped him. Now, the epidemic-enabler-in-chief is puckering up for a second smooch.
If we don’t talk about it, it will go away. Trump is not a President – he plays one on state TV. Outside what is on the screen bodies may be piling up in freezer trucks, but the screen IS reality.
This is Trump world. You don’t need knowledge, just convictions