Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf.
Figure 1: U.Michigan expectations index (blue), and NY “better off” aggregate (tan), both demeaned and standardized (2013M06-2025M02). Source: U.Michigan, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.
Among Republican-leaning respondents, the expectations index fell from 106.6 to 95.7. Among independents, from 59.1 to 51.8. Among Democratic-leaning voters, from 36.8 to 28.2. So pretty much everybody is in a mood right now.
Among all of the partisan scales across all three measures, the only one to rise in March was the current conditions index for Republicans, to 65.4 from 55.7. Not sure why, what with expectations falling so much, except for maybe a seasonal preference for Q1 in recent years.
There is some evidence of Michigan data being more reflective of financial market conditions, while Conference Board confidence data are more sensitive to labor market conditions.
Price of gasoline at local Costco on March 14:
2022: $3.929 (regular)
2025: $2.669 (regular) $3.669 (premium)
Thanks, Trump! (okay, just playing along). It’s fun to play games with data. But seriously, the cost of oil (gasoline) permeates the cost of many goods. So, this is good news. It may take awhile to show up, but it will.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/rising-oil-prices-affect-thousands-products-rcna18985
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO
Elon Musk posted yesterday: “Stalin, Mao and Hitler didn’t murder millions of people. Their public sector workers did.”