Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Term Spreads, Yield Curves, 28 March 2025
Big drop in one year to two year part of the spectrum suggests deceleration in growth in a year.
Time series:
2 thoughts on “Term Spreads, Yield Curves, 28 March 2025”
Macroduck
What a relief! I thought the recession might come early enough that it would have limited effect on the mid-term election. If we’re going to have a recession, let’s at least have it when it can do some good.
Not Bessent/Lutnick “good”. Actual good. For actual people.
baffling
what the graph tells me is that over the past couple of months, we have made no progress on short term rates-indicating we have not made any progress on the issue of inflation over the next half of year. the drop in longer term duration indicates that we have a reduction in expected growth over the next 1 to 10 years.
trump has worries about debt financing of all his tax cuts going forward, so the longer term rate reduction is ok with him. from that perspective. he will be able to debt fund his agenda, today. and the implication of the economy in 10 years? he does not care, as he will probably die off due to old age prior to that being his concern.
What a relief! I thought the recession might come early enough that it would have limited effect on the mid-term election. If we’re going to have a recession, let’s at least have it when it can do some good.
Not Bessent/Lutnick “good”. Actual good. For actual people.
what the graph tells me is that over the past couple of months, we have made no progress on short term rates-indicating we have not made any progress on the issue of inflation over the next half of year. the drop in longer term duration indicates that we have a reduction in expected growth over the next 1 to 10 years.
trump has worries about debt financing of all his tax cuts going forward, so the longer term rate reduction is ok with him. from that perspective. he will be able to debt fund his agenda, today. and the implication of the economy in 10 years? he does not care, as he will probably die off due to old age prior to that being his concern.