Both production and sales below m/m consensus.
Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (tan), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2], Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2025Q1 advance release, and author’s calculations.
For NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee indicators, see this post.
United Health Care is under criminal fraud investigation, again:
https://archive.is/Tsy9z
The specific fraudulent act under investigation is “upcoding” (over charging by claiming a more expensive procedure than was actually performed). UHC has avoided conviction in earlier upcoding cases, and may again. DOJ’s participation in the case suggests they expect to do better this time.