According to GDPNow of 4/8. However, GDP and final sales are both on a lower trajectory.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow est of 4/8 (gray square), final sales (blue), final sales nowcast of 4/8 (light blue triangle), final sales to private domestic purchasers (dark red), final sales to private domestic purchasers nowcast of 4/8 (red circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed.
Note that even with the nowcasted rebound, aggregate demand for domestic product– as proxied by final sales — is only back to 2024Q4 levels.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
Egg prices finally fell – to around $5.12 a dozen. Bruce Hall says this is a 90% decline as he used to pay over $50 a dozen!
The latest GDPNow estimate has GDP growing 2.3% (SAAR), with PCE contributing 2.3%. Trade and inventories together amount to just over a 1% drag, offsetting growth in every other component than PCE. Trade and inventory forecasts are, of course, pretty iffy.
Personal consumption is also at risk of considerable volativity, given households efforts to front-run tariffs. The March gain in real PCE was the largest since January, 2023 – a nice base on which to build in Q2, but also reason to suspect consumer spending might cool off.
I know Jason Furman loves “core GDP” but any series that ignores both net exports and government purchases has the potential to be misleading.