21 thoughts on “Federal Budget Deficit through May”
baffling
this is most certainly a lie. doge has worked hard to reduce trillions in spending. no way we can be worse off than last year. trump has had half a year to implement these great policies that will save us thousands! its gotta show up in the numbers. please stop with the misinformation.
John
baffling, go away until you learn to properly curate the news. Doge has likely cost more money than it has saved thus far, either way the fiscal impact has been virtually nill.
John: I suspect that baffling was being sarcastic.
baffling
my apologies. john’s criticism is accurate, because my attempt at sarcasm fell short, as prof. chinn noted. in retrospect, I see the problem. sarcasm should be executed with a bit of exaggeration in the statements. however, doge truly was looking to make trillions of dollars in spending cuts. and it truly only executed an amount that could be measured in thousands. so my effort was a bit of a failure, just like doge.
I will do better next time, when I report on the billion people who come out to see the orange turd’s military occupation parade in DC later this week.
who wants to bet one of those heavy tanks collapses a local bridge or sewer line during the execution of the parade? not saying it is likely, but it is a possibility.
Not Trampis
you yanks clearly have a problem with irony.
Macroduck
Kenzie is right. Don’t feel bad. We regulars sometime get the feeling we are the only ones here and just talk to each other. Please join in.
Macroduck
Menzie, not Kenzie. Typo.
baffling
peaceful demonstrations were interrupted by trump sending in the us military to engage in violence and create unrest. the unprovoked attack by federal forces was simply a game played by the administration to justify using authoritarian force to subjugate a free nation. this will be a process repeated many times over the summer, as trump tries to create unrest to justify sending in the troops in an effort to look strong. this is what you have devolved into republicans. and i hope the next administration takes notes, and jails folks like homan and ice barbie for their flagrant violation of civil rights. let it be known to all who carry out these illegal orders, that judgement will be passed at the appropriate time. and trump will not be there to defend you, because he really does not care about you once he has used you for his purposes. banana republic behavior.
Macroduck
18 U.S. Code § 1385 – Use of Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force as posse comitatus
“Whoever, except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress, willfully uses any part of the Army, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the Air Force, or the Space Force as a posse comitatus or otherwise to execute the laws shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.”
Of course, the felon-in-chief can commit this felony with impunity because the Supreme Court has said so. The felon’s violation of Section 1385 will go unpunished, and so this Section has lost nearly all meaning. The intent of Congress, and the judicial views of the Supreme Court from 1878 until 2024, are superceded by the anti-democratic spewings of these judicial yokels, the most corrupt Court since before the Civil War.
Maybe, maybe we can punish those who carried out the felon’s illegal order. Under this Court? Don’t hold your breath.
Aside from violating Posse Comitatus, due process, free speech and states’ rights issues are all raised by what’s going on in L.A. Republicans, hypocrits that they are, wave these issues around on tissue-thin foundations when itserves them, then won’t make a peep when it doesn’t. The felon-in-chief is making noises about insurgency when he engagrd in real insurgency and only got away with it because of a pet judge.
It worries me to say, baffling, that the “appropriate time” may be put off for a very long time. In all time and all places, Brown Shirts are Brown Shirts. They cling to power not just because they want it, but because they can’t afford to give it up. Their crimes become a motive for more crimes. If Marine Corp generals haven’t refused to turn out the troops now, then when will they?
baffling
I don’t disagree. but I don’t forget either. trump is not the only one in this country who can hold a grudge, for decades.
in the mean time, I would recommend a strong democratic governor call out the national guard during the next KKK rally.
China’s auto sector is having a price war, led by BYD. It’s reportedly scaring the pants off of China’s government. Over capacity and weak demand – you know the story.
This is the same problem seen throughout the economy. China’s effort to build a domestic supply chain for all major industries means most of the harm from a domestic slowdown is kept on shore.
The latest sales data from the construction sector show increasing weakness.
Problems with the domestic economy may provide an extra incentive for provocations toward Taiwan:
but I don’t believe that trump forgives and forgets. Bannon is still banished from the kingdom. rex, Jeff, mike all sit in purgatory. I may have left some cash on the table, but glad I finally unloaded on the Tesla stock. it had already appreciated about 1400%, so future returns were not likely to be comparable. especially for a company with declining sales. and I don’t see me buying a Tesla EV anytime soon. too expensive without the green tax credit. sorry Elon, but while you may still have success in the future, it will be without a significant number of people who helped propel you to riches up until a couple of years ago.
joseph
Rep. Thompson: “ Is there an independent expert that you can point to that says that [the Big Beautiful Bill] will not add to our national debt?”
Treasury Secretary Bessent: “Yes.”
Rep. Thompson: “What are they?”
Bessent: “Art Laffer.”
Rep. Thompson: “Art Laffer? Great,” accompanied by a literal round of laughter by everyone present in the hearing.
Bessent was hailed by the pundits as the adult in the room. Here he is lying to the public like a 5-year-old caught with their hand in the cookie jar and the public is laughing at him. Is there no limit to the depth of debasement these people will subject themselves to in obeisance to their Dear Leader?
Macroduck
Art Laffer’s only serious contribution to policy thinking – no sarcasm intended – is the Laffer Curve. His insight that no revenue would be collected at either zero or 100% tax rates, so that somewhere in the middle would collect the most revenue for a given level of output, has generated a good bit of study over the years. Much like calls for “dynamic scoring” of budgets, efforts to discover the optimal tax rate a la Laffer have not produced outcomes that right-wing tax cutters like. Turns out, the truth has a liberal bias. Here is perhaps the most widely cited effort to estimate Laffer optimum tax rates:
In that paper, Trabant and Uhlig find that tax rates just above 60% are optimal for raising revenue. Tax rates in the U.S. are currently well below optimal levels. Trabant and Uhlig estimated at the time that federal revenue could be increased by 30% by raising personal income tax rates and 8% by raising corporate income tax rates. When their paper was most recently revised, in 2011, the relevant rate was maybe slightly lower than today. (I’m not qualified to say, because the top marginal rate isn’t the appropriate rate, nor is some average across marginal rates – it’s complicated.) So instead of 38%, lets say higher tax rates could only raise revenue by 30%. That would mean a revenue increase of roughly $975 billion per year, against a deficit of $1.8 trillion. We could cut the deficit in half. If we got a 38% increase, it would raise more like $1.235 trillion, and we’d be looking at a reasonably sustainable deficit. Fund the IRS adequately and maybe we’d erase the deficit entirely.
If the tax code and government in general is merely a weapon of class warfare, none of this matters a bit. If government is, instead, intended to ensure the general welfare, then we need to keep the Trabant and Uhlig estimates of Laffer’s optimal tax rate firmly in mind.
Here’s a fun little stab at finding out what the middle of Laffer’s curve looks like:
The author, who admits to knowing little about economics, manages to think pretty well about the issues and uses the data nicely. Reading through his efforts can help those without the skills of Trabant and Uhlig understand the difficulties in doing this sort of work.
joseph
“Art Laffer’s only serious contribution to policy thinking – no sarcasm intended – is the Laffer Curve. His insight that no revenue would be collected at either zero or 100% tax rates, so that somewhere in the middle would collect the most revenue for a given level of output.”
In other words, Laffer’s “insight” was to rediscover Rolle’s Theorem which is taught to every high school calculus student and was described my Michel Rolle over three centuries ago. Brilliant!
Macroduck
The Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions recently asked U. Pennsylvania’s Institute of Health Economics and Yale’s School of Public Health to score the Big Bloated Bill for its effect on human mortality. Short answer is it will kill over 51,000 people per year.
Notably, that’s not the cost of budget savings. The Bloat will add a couple of trillion dollars or so to the debt over ten years, more after that, while killing over 510,000 over that same ten years, more after that.
Leaving the budget as it is in current law would save more than half a million lives and prevent a vast increase in federal debt. That’s the choice before the Senate: Enrich the rich by killing half a million people and add trillions to the debt, or don’t. Should be an easy choice.
joseph
Here is brilliant lead negotiator Howard Lutnick at the London trade talks:
Lutnick said the negotiating room at the opulent Lancaster House provided the team a level of familiarity.
“The room we were in, I never felt more comfortable, because every inch of it was gold-leafed,” he said. “It was the perfect place to negotiate a Donald Trump deal.”
I kid you not. These folks are children. The Chinese are going to run circles around these morons and they won’t even realize they’ve been had. Regardless, Trump will crow “Best deal ever!”
ltr
“The Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions recently asked…”
This is incorrect; the request came from 2 members of the Senate, Ron Wyden and Bernie Sanders. Wyden is a Democrat and Sanders though elected as an Independent is part of the Democratic caucus.
Macroduck
Seriously?. It’s right there in the first sentence of the document:
“…in response to a request for technical assistance from the Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & and Pensions…”
I’m surprised you’d try to insinuate yourself back into comments with such a sloppy effort.
joseph
Baffling: “and now musk bends the knee and kisses the ring.”
What good is it being the richest person in the world if you have to utterly humiliate yourself by being Donald Trump’s little poodle.
You can see how easily Hitler took over German society because all of the so-called titans and moguls rolled on their backs and pi**ed themselves in submission. Now you have Musk and Zuckerberg and Bezos doing the same.
this is most certainly a lie. doge has worked hard to reduce trillions in spending. no way we can be worse off than last year. trump has had half a year to implement these great policies that will save us thousands! its gotta show up in the numbers. please stop with the misinformation.
baffling, go away until you learn to properly curate the news. Doge has likely cost more money than it has saved thus far, either way the fiscal impact has been virtually nill.
John: I suspect that baffling was being sarcastic.
my apologies. john’s criticism is accurate, because my attempt at sarcasm fell short, as prof. chinn noted. in retrospect, I see the problem. sarcasm should be executed with a bit of exaggeration in the statements. however, doge truly was looking to make trillions of dollars in spending cuts. and it truly only executed an amount that could be measured in thousands. so my effort was a bit of a failure, just like doge.
I will do better next time, when I report on the billion people who come out to see the orange turd’s military occupation parade in DC later this week.
who wants to bet one of those heavy tanks collapses a local bridge or sewer line during the execution of the parade? not saying it is likely, but it is a possibility.
you yanks clearly have a problem with irony.
Kenzie is right. Don’t feel bad. We regulars sometime get the feeling we are the only ones here and just talk to each other. Please join in.
Menzie, not Kenzie. Typo.
peaceful demonstrations were interrupted by trump sending in the us military to engage in violence and create unrest. the unprovoked attack by federal forces was simply a game played by the administration to justify using authoritarian force to subjugate a free nation. this will be a process repeated many times over the summer, as trump tries to create unrest to justify sending in the troops in an effort to look strong. this is what you have devolved into republicans. and i hope the next administration takes notes, and jails folks like homan and ice barbie for their flagrant violation of civil rights. let it be known to all who carry out these illegal orders, that judgement will be passed at the appropriate time. and trump will not be there to defend you, because he really does not care about you once he has used you for his purposes. banana republic behavior.
18 U.S. Code § 1385 – Use of Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force as posse comitatus
“Whoever, except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress, willfully uses any part of the Army, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the Air Force, or the Space Force as a posse comitatus or otherwise to execute the laws shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.”
Of course, the felon-in-chief can commit this felony with impunity because the Supreme Court has said so. The felon’s violation of Section 1385 will go unpunished, and so this Section has lost nearly all meaning. The intent of Congress, and the judicial views of the Supreme Court from 1878 until 2024, are superceded by the anti-democratic spewings of these judicial yokels, the most corrupt Court since before the Civil War.
Maybe, maybe we can punish those who carried out the felon’s illegal order. Under this Court? Don’t hold your breath.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1385
Aside from violating Posse Comitatus, due process, free speech and states’ rights issues are all raised by what’s going on in L.A. Republicans, hypocrits that they are, wave these issues around on tissue-thin foundations when itserves them, then won’t make a peep when it doesn’t. The felon-in-chief is making noises about insurgency when he engagrd in real insurgency and only got away with it because of a pet judge.
It worries me to say, baffling, that the “appropriate time” may be put off for a very long time. In all time and all places, Brown Shirts are Brown Shirts. They cling to power not just because they want it, but because they can’t afford to give it up. Their crimes become a motive for more crimes. If Marine Corp generals haven’t refused to turn out the troops now, then when will they?
I don’t disagree. but I don’t forget either. trump is not the only one in this country who can hold a grudge, for decades.
in the mean time, I would recommend a strong democratic governor call out the national guard during the next KKK rally.
Off topic – back to economics:
https://archive.is/Nm8u7
China’s auto sector is having a price war, led by BYD. It’s reportedly scaring the pants off of China’s government. Over capacity and weak demand – you know the story.
This is the same problem seen throughout the economy. China’s effort to build a domestic supply chain for all major industries means most of the harm from a domestic slowdown is kept on shore.
The latest sales data from the construction sector show increasing weakness.
Problems with the domestic economy may provide an extra incentive for provocations toward Taiwan:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-accuses-china-carrying-out-provocative-military-patrol-near-island-2025-06-06/
and now musk bends the knee and kisses the ring.
but I don’t believe that trump forgives and forgets. Bannon is still banished from the kingdom. rex, Jeff, mike all sit in purgatory. I may have left some cash on the table, but glad I finally unloaded on the Tesla stock. it had already appreciated about 1400%, so future returns were not likely to be comparable. especially for a company with declining sales. and I don’t see me buying a Tesla EV anytime soon. too expensive without the green tax credit. sorry Elon, but while you may still have success in the future, it will be without a significant number of people who helped propel you to riches up until a couple of years ago.
Rep. Thompson: “ Is there an independent expert that you can point to that says that [the Big Beautiful Bill] will not add to our national debt?”
Treasury Secretary Bessent: “Yes.”
Rep. Thompson: “What are they?”
Bessent: “Art Laffer.”
Rep. Thompson: “Art Laffer? Great,” accompanied by a literal round of laughter by everyone present in the hearing.
Bessent was hailed by the pundits as the adult in the room. Here he is lying to the public like a 5-year-old caught with their hand in the cookie jar and the public is laughing at him. Is there no limit to the depth of debasement these people will subject themselves to in obeisance to their Dear Leader?
Art Laffer’s only serious contribution to policy thinking – no sarcasm intended – is the Laffer Curve. His insight that no revenue would be collected at either zero or 100% tax rates, so that somewhere in the middle would collect the most revenue for a given level of output, has generated a good bit of study over the years. Much like calls for “dynamic scoring” of budgets, efforts to discover the optimal tax rate a la Laffer have not produced outcomes that right-wing tax cutters like. Turns out, the truth has a liberal bias. Here is perhaps the most widely cited effort to estimate Laffer optimum tax rates:
https://www.nber.org/papers/w15343
In that paper, Trabant and Uhlig find that tax rates just above 60% are optimal for raising revenue. Tax rates in the U.S. are currently well below optimal levels. Trabant and Uhlig estimated at the time that federal revenue could be increased by 30% by raising personal income tax rates and 8% by raising corporate income tax rates. When their paper was most recently revised, in 2011, the relevant rate was maybe slightly lower than today. (I’m not qualified to say, because the top marginal rate isn’t the appropriate rate, nor is some average across marginal rates – it’s complicated.) So instead of 38%, lets say higher tax rates could only raise revenue by 30%. That would mean a revenue increase of roughly $975 billion per year, against a deficit of $1.8 trillion. We could cut the deficit in half. If we got a 38% increase, it would raise more like $1.235 trillion, and we’d be looking at a reasonably sustainable deficit. Fund the IRS adequately and maybe we’d erase the deficit entirely.
If the tax code and government in general is merely a weapon of class warfare, none of this matters a bit. If government is, instead, intended to ensure the general welfare, then we need to keep the Trabant and Uhlig estimates of Laffer’s optimal tax rate firmly in mind.
Here’s a fun little stab at finding out what the middle of Laffer’s curve looks like:
https://medium.com/swlh/a-data-driven-analysis-of-the-laffer-curve-354bbc9297e4
The author, who admits to knowing little about economics, manages to think pretty well about the issues and uses the data nicely. Reading through his efforts can help those without the skills of Trabant and Uhlig understand the difficulties in doing this sort of work.
“Art Laffer’s only serious contribution to policy thinking – no sarcasm intended – is the Laffer Curve. His insight that no revenue would be collected at either zero or 100% tax rates, so that somewhere in the middle would collect the most revenue for a given level of output.”
In other words, Laffer’s “insight” was to rediscover Rolle’s Theorem which is taught to every high school calculus student and was described my Michel Rolle over three centuries ago. Brilliant!
The Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions recently asked U. Pennsylvania’s Institute of Health Economics and Yale’s School of Public Health to score the Big Bloated Bill for its effect on human mortality. Short answer is it will kill over 51,000 people per year.
https://ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/research-memo-projected-mortality-impacts-of-the-budget-reconciliation-bill/
Notably, that’s not the cost of budget savings. The Bloat will add a couple of trillion dollars or so to the debt over ten years, more after that, while killing over 510,000 over that same ten years, more after that.
Leaving the budget as it is in current law would save more than half a million lives and prevent a vast increase in federal debt. That’s the choice before the Senate: Enrich the rich by killing half a million people and add trillions to the debt, or don’t. Should be an easy choice.
Here is brilliant lead negotiator Howard Lutnick at the London trade talks:
Lutnick said the negotiating room at the opulent Lancaster House provided the team a level of familiarity.
“The room we were in, I never felt more comfortable, because every inch of it was gold-leafed,” he said. “It was the perfect place to negotiate a Donald Trump deal.”
I kid you not. These folks are children. The Chinese are going to run circles around these morons and they won’t even realize they’ve been had. Regardless, Trump will crow “Best deal ever!”
“The Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions recently asked…”
This is incorrect; the request came from 2 members of the Senate, Ron Wyden and Bernie Sanders. Wyden is a Democrat and Sanders though elected as an Independent is part of the Democratic caucus.
Seriously?. It’s right there in the first sentence of the document:
“…in response to a request for technical assistance from the Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & and Pensions…”
I’m surprised you’d try to insinuate yourself back into comments with such a sloppy effort.
Baffling: “and now musk bends the knee and kisses the ring.”
What good is it being the richest person in the world if you have to utterly humiliate yourself by being Donald Trump’s little poodle.
You can see how easily Hitler took over German society because all of the so-called titans and moguls rolled on their backs and pi**ed themselves in submission. Now you have Musk and Zuckerberg and Bezos doing the same.