The Yale Budget Lab regularly (’cause… Trump) updates the stated effective tariff rate. But what’s the actual effective tariff rate in effect given all the threats, pauses, etc.? Not sure? Fortunately, Paweł Skrzypczyński is on the case:
Source: Paweł Skrzypczyński, accessed 7/29/2025.
As of June July, the average effective tariff rate is 9.1%.
Note that as of today (noon CT), Yale Budget Lab indicates the average effective tariff rate given policies announced through 7/27 is 16.6% (pre-substitution, before August 1 tariffs are in effect).
Oops. Lutnick slips up and accidentally tells the truth on Fox News.
Lutnick: “The European Union is going to pay 15%. It’s all exports to America, they are going to pay 15% — except for a few little things. One of the things we don’t charge a tariff is airplane parts from the EU so that Boeing doesn’t have to pay tariffs.”
What? You’re saying Boeing would have to pay tariffs, not the EU, so you exclude Boeing from the burdensome tariff tax?