From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027.

These estimates based on a VAR(2) using annual data, net unauthorized immigration as a percent of the previous-year U.S. population,  annual growth rate of nonfarm payroll employment, the PCE annual inflation rate, and yearly GDP growth.

Source: Orrenius et al. (2025).

PCE inflation is 15 bps and 6 bps higher in 2026 and 2027 under baseline.