+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.
Figure 1: Private NFP, May release (black), June release (red), nowcast using ADP (light blue square), +/- 1 standard error (gray +). Source: BLS, author’s calculations (see text).
Public sector hiring accounted for roughly half of the total job gain in June, all in state and local government payrolls. Much of that was in education, which has a large seasonal adjustment component in June.
The unemployment rate remained fairly steady, but that’s a little misleading, given that the labor force has been contracting since January, with the participation rate down 0.3% so far this year:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JYV5
This decline in labor supply looks to be mostly due to weak immigration. Year-over-year growth in the foreign-born labor force is the slowest since the bad old days of Covid:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JYVA