Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo:
Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale). Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis policyuncertainty.com, and Caldara et al. TPUD. [updated 7/6]
Why the recent jump? Well…
Source: J. Politano.
“90 deals in 90 days” joins “infrastructure week” and “Russia/Ukraine war over in 24 hours”.
We have another candidate auditioning for Fed chair.
Scott Bessent: “The president is the most economically sophisticated president certainly for 100 years, perhaps in history.”
How can these people go on TV in front of millions and debase themselves like that? He was once considered one of the titans of Wall Street. His old friends must be laughing at him now.
Reporter Dana Bash: “Why haven’t we seen the kind of deals he promised in the last 90 days.”
Bessent: “He didn’t promise this. When we send out the 100 letters to these countries, that will set their tariff rate. So we will have 100 done in the next few days..”
Bash: That’s not a deal. That’s a threat.
Hey, hey. Good one, Dana.
Meanwhile, Bessent has moved the goalposts once again, saying that the April tariffs will take effect not in July but in August. Another serving of TACOs? Bessent has said that Trump is a genius in “strategic uncertainty.” Well, he’s half right — not so sure about the genius part.
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April 11, press secretary Karoline Leavitt: “The phones are ringing off the hook.”
July 6, Treasury Secretary Bessent: “Many of these countries have never even contacted us.”
As for his promises to end the Ukraine and Gaza wars on the first day, Trump thinks everything is so easy. He expected the world to come to him begging on their knees. The world recognizes they are dealing with a clown suffering from dementia.
This is the total ignorance we are dealing with:
Representative Tim Burchett (R-TN): “God put coal in the ground. Let’s use it. There’s a reason as Trump told me that there’s no windmills in China.”
Trump told him? Well there’s your problem.
China has more wind turbines operating today than the rest of the world put together. China has over 190,000 and the US has 76,000.
China has 900 gigawatts of solar installed. The US has 250 gigawatts.
Trump with his new tax bill is cutting all of the solar, wind and EV programs and taking us back to 19th century fossil energy. Meanwhile China is charging ahead in the 21st. The US is never going to recover from the damage done by the Trump administration.
“The United States collects 25 percent of GDP in taxes, but could collect much more if it chose. Some European nations collect more than 40 percent.”
Krugman the other day. Did Koptis tell us that this ratio could not ever be higher than 18%? OK Stevie boy must have forgetton to include state and local taxes. And I guess this Hungarian moron never checked with the OECD to see that his home nation has a tax to GDP ratio near 33%.
Hassett was on Face the Nation with a parade of lies over how CBO never gets anything right. After all Mr. Dow 36000 has a perfect forecasting record – right?
Trump guts the national weather service, leaving too many posts unfilled so that accurate weather forecasts and responses result. Dozens of young children die in a texas flash flood because understaffed weather agencies could not get warnings out properly. Trump administration simply blames the understaffed weather service for not doing their job, in typical blame avoidance fashion. Maga and doge cuts killed those little girls in that camp. Trump and doge has blood on their hands, just like rick and bruce in this site. Disgusting.