Goldman Sachs says +0.3% q/q AR in Q3:
Figure 1: Final sales to domestic purchasers (bold black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters median (brown), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), and GDPNow of 8/19 (light blue square), and Goldman Sachs of 8/22 (red square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
Professor Chinn,
Given Goldman’s final sales forecast of just +0.3% q/q AR for Q3, and recent signs of sticky inflation and labor market softening, do you think we’re drifting toward stagflation?
I am also wondering if gs10 may not decline after the ff rate is lowered due to inflation concerns.