11 thoughts on “Wisconsin under Trump Trade War 2.0”
Macroduck
Off topic – A recent NBER working paper looks at, among other things, the role of trade restrictions and institutional strength in recovery from recessions. For the U.S., the news isn’t good:
Global Shocks, Institutional Development, and Trade Restrictions: What Can We Learn from Crises and Recoveries Between 1990 and 2022?
Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, Jamel Saadaoui & Gazi Salah Uddin
“For the whole sample, we find that deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries, in line with Friedman’s plucking model of the business cycle. However, the empirical evidence for the plucking model becomes weaker if institutional development is limited and trade restrictions are high.”
The U.S. is unlikely to qualify as having limited institutional development, though we’re drifting in that direction. High trade restrictions? Check. So whether the felon’s set of bad economic policies induces recession in the near term or we have to wait a while, high trade barriers are likely to slow recovery. If limited institutions slow recovery, it’s not a stretch to think that weakened institutions will do a worse job that when they were in better shape.
Check the list of authors for some of the usual suspects. Hope I’m not repeating something out host has already posted.
joseph
The TACO presidency continues. Last week is was another 90-day delay in China tariffs. This week it is reversing course on a Russian ceasefire and sanctions.
Nobody believes anything Trump says anymore. There is just increasing “strategic uncertainty.”
Macroduck
Off topic – CBO confirms that roughly half a trillion dollars will be cut from Medicare spending in 2027 as a result of the Big Bloated Budget Bill:
The CBO did warn Congress before the Bloat was passed. As the first link notes, the felon-in-chief and Congressional Republicans promised not to cut Medicare. Instead, they have relied on existing PAYGO legislation to do the cutting for them. The intent was there, and the results are the same. I assume “Who? No! Not us!” will be the answer when the cuts begin to hurt constituents, just like every other rotten thing hidden in the Bloat.
Note also that cuts to Medicare will commence after the midterms, like so many of the harms built into the bill.
joseph
Bessent on Fox News: “The amount of money that’s coming in here — I think the more deals we’ve done, the more money coming in, it gets harder and harder for the Supreme Court to rule against us.” He said that tariff income is well in excess of $300 billion.
So wait, Bessent is arguing that Trump’s unilateral executive tax in defiance of the constitution is so big that the court must ignore the lawbreaking? Wow!
Macroduck
Apparently, the Constitution is just an Overton’s window, and the right has been moving this Overton window for decades. So of course the Supreme Court wouldn’t allow the executive to usurp a constitutional power of the legislature, until it does. Bessent is making the argument that the deficit matters sooooo much that the Justices will simply have to see reason.
Of course stare decisis prevents Citizens United from winning its case. Of course the Voting Rights Act prevents racially-based gerrymandering. Of course capital punishment is cruel and unusual. Of course Roe v Wade is settled law. Of course teaching religion in schools is prevented by the separation clause. Of course states can impose reasonable limits on guns. Of course equal treatment under the law applies to everyone, including the President.
Anybody else notice a pattern?
JohnH
Looks like the US’ proxy war in Ukraine is turning out to have been pointless and futile after all.
And the Russian economy never tanked 30% as it was slated to do, according to the host.
JohnH: I agree the war is pointless – if only ***Russia*** had not invaded. Are you someone who believes WWII happened because Poland was recalcitrant in shooting back at the invading Germans and Russians? My guess is “yes”.
Daniel Herkes
Trump admired strong man tactics long before he was President. He liked the feelings of power.
Macroduck
How did Johniesneak back in after being banned?
His singing the same old tune, Patrioticheskaya Pesnya, so it’s not as if he’s adding any value.
Ivan
As pointless and futile as going to the bathroom – its all sh!t and you will have to go again anyway.
Off topic – A recent NBER working paper looks at, among other things, the role of trade restrictions and institutional strength in recovery from recessions. For the U.S., the news isn’t good:
Global Shocks, Institutional Development, and Trade Restrictions: What Can We Learn from Crises and Recoveries Between 1990 and 2022?
Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, Jamel Saadaoui & Gazi Salah Uddin
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33757
From the abstract:
“For the whole sample, we find that deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries, in line with Friedman’s plucking model of the business cycle. However, the empirical evidence for the plucking model becomes weaker if institutional development is limited and trade restrictions are high.”
The U.S. is unlikely to qualify as having limited institutional development, though we’re drifting in that direction. High trade restrictions? Check. So whether the felon’s set of bad economic policies induces recession in the near term or we have to wait a while, high trade barriers are likely to slow recovery. If limited institutions slow recovery, it’s not a stretch to think that weakened institutions will do a worse job that when they were in better shape.
Check the list of authors for some of the usual suspects. Hope I’m not repeating something out host has already posted.
The TACO presidency continues. Last week is was another 90-day delay in China tariffs. This week it is reversing course on a Russian ceasefire and sanctions.
Nobody believes anything Trump says anymore. There is just increasing “strategic uncertainty.”
Off topic – CBO confirms that roughly half a trillion dollars will be cut from Medicare spending in 2027 as a result of the Big Bloated Budget Bill:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-tax-law-could-cause-medicare-cuts-if-congress-doesnt-act-cbo-says/ar-AA1KBuza
If only someone had warned Congress before the Bloat was passed. Oh, wait!:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61423
The CBO did warn Congress before the Bloat was passed. As the first link notes, the felon-in-chief and Congressional Republicans promised not to cut Medicare. Instead, they have relied on existing PAYGO legislation to do the cutting for them. The intent was there, and the results are the same. I assume “Who? No! Not us!” will be the answer when the cuts begin to hurt constituents, just like every other rotten thing hidden in the Bloat.
Note also that cuts to Medicare will commence after the midterms, like so many of the harms built into the bill.
Bessent on Fox News: “The amount of money that’s coming in here — I think the more deals we’ve done, the more money coming in, it gets harder and harder for the Supreme Court to rule against us.” He said that tariff income is well in excess of $300 billion.
So wait, Bessent is arguing that Trump’s unilateral executive tax in defiance of the constitution is so big that the court must ignore the lawbreaking? Wow!
Apparently, the Constitution is just an Overton’s window, and the right has been moving this Overton window for decades. So of course the Supreme Court wouldn’t allow the executive to usurp a constitutional power of the legislature, until it does. Bessent is making the argument that the deficit matters sooooo much that the Justices will simply have to see reason.
Of course stare decisis prevents Citizens United from winning its case. Of course the Voting Rights Act prevents racially-based gerrymandering. Of course capital punishment is cruel and unusual. Of course Roe v Wade is settled law. Of course teaching religion in schools is prevented by the separation clause. Of course states can impose reasonable limits on guns. Of course equal treatment under the law applies to everyone, including the President.
Anybody else notice a pattern?
Looks like the US’ proxy war in Ukraine is turning out to have been pointless and futile after all.
And the Russian economy never tanked 30% as it was slated to do, according to the host.
JohnH: I agree the war is pointless – if only ***Russia*** had not invaded. Are you someone who believes WWII happened because Poland was recalcitrant in shooting back at the invading Germans and Russians? My guess is “yes”.
Trump admired strong man tactics long before he was President. He liked the feelings of power.
How did Johniesneak back in after being banned?
His singing the same old tune, Patrioticheskaya Pesnya, so it’s not as if he’s adding any value.
As pointless and futile as going to the bathroom – its all sh!t and you will have to go again anyway.
He’s baaaack! And worthless as ever.