Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth
From the CPI release:
Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), ERS forecast of January 2025 (blue square), of March 2025 (red triangle), of August 2025 (inverted green triangle). Source: BLS via FRED, ERS, and author’s calculations.
14 thoughts on “Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth”
baffling
in texas, groceries, especially fruits and vegetables, are getting more expensive. no workers to pick them on the American side of the border, and expensive tariffs to import them from the Mexican side of the border. inflation is slowly working through the economy. it is slow. but it is definitely there. and it is clear, Americans are the ones paying for those tariffs in the form of inflation. trump has been dragging on the inflation increases, so it will be a slow rise rather than a sudden hit. but make no mistake, it is clear that Americans are paying for those tariffs. cost of living is increasing under trump.
Not steady at all. Food becomes a smaller share of spending over time, with some interruptions. In recession, food’s share rises as households cut back on non-essentials, but try to keep feeding their kids. And, of course lower-income households spend a larger share of their income on food than do better-off households.
Point is, rising food prices hurt the poorest households most, and hurt most during recession. We know lower-paid workers are more likely to loose their jobs in recession, so suffer doubly if food is expensive during recessions.
Food stamp cuts from the Big Bloated Budget Bill went into effect on the first of this month, so poor households are likely to lose food benefits right about now. Just so ya know.
Macroduck
Looks like the guy who shot Charlie Kirk has been arrested. Early indi ations are that he is a U.S. citizen, from Utah, white, acted alone, is politically unaffiliated, not associated with any radical group or ideology, not associated with any foreign governments or groups.
So the felon-in-chief, faux news, the right-wing echo chamber and various Republican members of Congress got everything wrong. Every single thing.
Ivan
He may have been a Groyper. In which case the killing was motivated by internal right wing extremist feuds. Faux news supposedly has become a lot less vile about leftists being responsible for this.
James
It is the height of fiscal irresponsibility for the Congressional Republicans and Trump Administration to saddle the U.S. massive amounts of govt debt in the face of an aging and shrinking population and to make it much worse by deporting workers: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61390
Bruce Hall: Are you trying to tell me the food at component of the cpi is an *average*? Quelle surprise!
ottnott
I think he’s telling you that cherry prices will be stable in spite of a declining immigrant workforce available to do the picking.
Bruce Hall
Menzie, no I’m saying that 1) averages hide a lot of variability and 2) there are offsets and alternatives. But you knew that.
James Harold McClure
Well duh – if a product is not hit with a tariff then I guess it’s price will not be directly affected. Of course your team has a lot of clowns who tell me tariffs lower prices. I guess bananas and coffee are now free.
baffling
bruce, averages do not hide a lot of variability. if the average is rising (like inflation is rising), this means that more items are increasing in cost than holding steady or decreasing in cost. this is apparent both in the published numbers as well as a casual stroll down any supermarket lane. either you are burying your head in the sand or you are dense bruce. inflation is a rising problem that does not seem to be going away. inflation is 50% higher than the feds target.
Macroduck
Brucie is at it again:
“Beef is the real issue for many households and that has been hit with the double problem of drought and screwworm parasites.”
First, this is just Brucie trying his usual rhetorical trickery. “The real issue”? So if beef prices fall, but every other price rises, “many households ” will be just fine? Utter nonsense.
The bit about screwworms? I’ve already corrected Brucie on this point, so at this point, he’s flat-out lying. Cattle in the U.S. don’t have screwworm. One guy did, because he traveled to where screwworm is prevalent. A guy with screwworm doesn’t affect beef prices.
We eradicated screwworm decades ago and are prepared to do it again. Mexico has screwworm. Not the U.S.
Macroduck
Oh, and lower petroleum prices do “tend” to suppress oyher prices, but CPI was still up 2.9% in August, vs 2.3% when the felon-in-chief announced his stupid tariffs.
Inflation is accelerating. Brucie is trying to talk his way around that fact. That’s dishonest.
in texas, groceries, especially fruits and vegetables, are getting more expensive. no workers to pick them on the American side of the border, and expensive tariffs to import them from the Mexican side of the border. inflation is slowly working through the economy. it is slow. but it is definitely there. and it is clear, Americans are the ones paying for those tariffs in the form of inflation. trump has been dragging on the inflation increases, so it will be a slow rise rather than a sudden hit. but make no mistake, it is clear that Americans are paying for those tariffs. cost of living is increasing under trump.
Here’s food at home prices alongside overall CPI:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Mg1G
Very similar behavior over the long run, but maybe that’s changing.
Here’s food as a share of personal consumption spending:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Mg2z
Not steady at all. Food becomes a smaller share of spending over time, with some interruptions. In recession, food’s share rises as households cut back on non-essentials, but try to keep feeding their kids. And, of course lower-income households spend a larger share of their income on food than do better-off households.
Point is, rising food prices hurt the poorest households most, and hurt most during recession. We know lower-paid workers are more likely to loose their jobs in recession, so suffer doubly if food is expensive during recessions.
Food stamp cuts from the Big Bloated Budget Bill went into effect on the first of this month, so poor households are likely to lose food benefits right about now. Just so ya know.
Looks like the guy who shot Charlie Kirk has been arrested. Early indi ations are that he is a U.S. citizen, from Utah, white, acted alone, is politically unaffiliated, not associated with any radical group or ideology, not associated with any foreign governments or groups.
So the felon-in-chief, faux news, the right-wing echo chamber and various Republican members of Congress got everything wrong. Every single thing.
He may have been a Groyper. In which case the killing was motivated by internal right wing extremist feuds. Faux news supposedly has become a lot less vile about leftists being responsible for this.
It is the height of fiscal irresponsibility for the Congressional Republicans and Trump Administration to saddle the U.S. massive amounts of govt debt in the face of an aging and shrinking population and to make it much worse by deporting workers: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61390
Of course, not all food prices have increased the same;
https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/dining/2025/08/22/beef-eggs-coffee-more-expensive/85710870007/
These groceries decreased in price from June 2024 to 2025:
• Fats and oils: Prices decreased 1.4%.
• Fresh vegetables: Prices decreased 1.3%.
Beef is the real issue for many households and that has been hit with the double problem of drought and screwworm parasites.
Egg prices rose sharply due to a bird flu epidemic in the laying hen population that spanned from mid-October 2024 through early March, resulting in the depopulation of 50.7 million egg-laying hens, per the USDA.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/grocery/shopping/2025/09/10/egg-prices-usda-holiday-outlook/85992054007/
The good news? Energy prices are stable to slightly down and significantly lower than June 2022. That tends to suppress inflation in other areas.
Bruce Hall: Are you trying to tell me the food at component of the cpi is an *average*? Quelle surprise!
I think he’s telling you that cherry prices will be stable in spite of a declining immigrant workforce available to do the picking.
Menzie, no I’m saying that 1) averages hide a lot of variability and 2) there are offsets and alternatives. But you knew that.
Well duh – if a product is not hit with a tariff then I guess it’s price will not be directly affected. Of course your team has a lot of clowns who tell me tariffs lower prices. I guess bananas and coffee are now free.
bruce, averages do not hide a lot of variability. if the average is rising (like inflation is rising), this means that more items are increasing in cost than holding steady or decreasing in cost. this is apparent both in the published numbers as well as a casual stroll down any supermarket lane. either you are burying your head in the sand or you are dense bruce. inflation is a rising problem that does not seem to be going away. inflation is 50% higher than the feds target.
Brucie is at it again:
“Beef is the real issue for many households and that has been hit with the double problem of drought and screwworm parasites.”
First, this is just Brucie trying his usual rhetorical trickery. “The real issue”? So if beef prices fall, but every other price rises, “many households ” will be just fine? Utter nonsense.
The bit about screwworms? I’ve already corrected Brucie on this point, so at this point, he’s flat-out lying. Cattle in the U.S. don’t have screwworm. One guy did, because he traveled to where screwworm is prevalent. A guy with screwworm doesn’t affect beef prices.
We eradicated screwworm decades ago and are prepared to do it again. Mexico has screwworm. Not the U.S.
Oh, and lower petroleum prices do “tend” to suppress oyher prices, but CPI was still up 2.9% in August, vs 2.3% when the felon-in-chief announced his stupid tariffs.
Inflation is accelerating. Brucie is trying to talk his way around that fact. That’s dishonest.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112
Hey Brucie – as I recall you were all in flames over ground beef prices a year ago. But now that Trump is in charge I guess you have gone vegan.