Two interesting pictures. First, the reliance of US GDP growth on Tech Spending.

Source: DB, 24 Sep 2025.

The second, from the OECD’s Economic Outlook Interim Report (Sept 2025).

Source: OECD, Economic Outlook Interim Report (Sep. 2025), Figure 9.

Since the CPI has risen about 23% since January 2021, then the LSEG ex-technology index has risen only about 20% in real (CPI-deflated) terms, or a little more than 5% per year.

Another way to look at this concentration of returns is to consider that in nominal terms, the Russell 2000 for small cap firms is at about the same level as at the end of 2022.

So, continued GDP growth in the US relies upon a continuation of the boom in IT-related stocks and investment.

Addendum:

From Yardeni:

Source: Yardeni, accessed 9/27/2025.