Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Sentiment Declines
Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence.
12 thoughts on “Sentiment Declines”
joseph
Reuters is on it again. They have obtained actual loan documents for Lisa Cook. While the standardized federal mortgage paperwork stipulates that each loan obtained by Cook for the Atlanta and Michigan properties is meant for a “primary residence”, it also states “unless Lender otherwise agrees in writing.”
And indeed, the loan estimate, a document prepared by the credit union in Atlanta, states “Property Use: Vacation Home.” So the credit union was aware and agreed to the terms of the loan for a second home. There is no mortgage fraud.
Bill Pulte and his boss Trump are full of sh*t and don’t have a leg to stand on. That’s why there is no indictment. They intend to fight this with lies and innuendo in public because they cannot win in court.
Nevertheless, they are having an emergency appeals court hearing on Monday in an attempt to prevent Cook from voting in the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile the Senate is expediting the confirmation of Stephen Miran for Monday, even as he keeps his job working for Trump at the White House, in an attempt to pack the Fed board of governors. If they are successful booting Cook and installing Miran, they will have a 3-3 Trumpist split on the committee for the vote next week.
Macroduck
Don’t forget the voting Presidents, none of whom have recently dissented in favor of rate cuts. They’re all beholden to their regional boards. Until next February, ay least, the good guys outnumber the bad guys.
baffling
“If they are successful booting Cook and installing Miran, they will have a 3-3 Trumpist split on the committee for the vote next week.”
in trumps defense, his economy is starting to tank. his policies are failing. he has had months.
baffling
cook should be suing pulte for defamation and libel. the Supreme Court has shown you cannot sue trump. but that courtesy has not been extended to others.
Macroduck
U. Michigan index of consumer sentiment among Dems 39. Among Independents 51.8. Among Republicans 93.6, but still the lowest since May. MAGA kids know something is wrong.
Index of expectations among Dems 31.1. Independents 47.1. Reps 101.1 MAGA kids may know that something is wrong, but they still live in MAGA world, where the felon and faux news tell them what to think. Everybody else expects the future to be worse than today.
No wonder Brucie has such a hard time understanding inflation and household budgets and stuff. Head full of MAGA.
Macroduck
Here’s a comparison of 10-year term premium vs the 10-year unflation breakeven:
The inflation breakeven is drifting up since April, while term premium is headed lower. FRED doesn’t have a series for the exoected funds rate that I know of, but it’s also headed lower. One conventional read on this configuration of factors is an expectation of stagflation. We don’t yet have term premium or breakeven data reflecting the latest CPI release. Tuesday, I think.
Meanwhile, the U Michigan inflation expectations index rose to 4.9% in the preliminary September reading from 4.5% in the August final. Last September, the index was at 2.7%. The Fed is probably going to cut rates next wek, but don’t expect to hear that inflation expectations are well anchored.
Brucie wants us to know that not EVERY price is headed higher. News flash for Brucie: It’s almost never the case that all prices are rising.
Even though not every single price is rising, inflation IS rising. Hiring is just about stalled. Poor and middle-class families are gradually feeling the damage from the Big Bloated Budget Bill. Soldiers are roaming the streets. The rule of law is under attack. Climate change is causing ever more damage and insurance costs are rising as a result. The number of households living paycheck-to-paycheck is rising.
Putting on the old rose-colored glasses, allow me to observe the good news in this report; the collapse was due to fraud. If standard lending practices in the sub-prime auto lending business had led to bankruptcy, that would be far worse than the case before us.
Enough with the rose-tinted specs:
‘“ABS market participants are creating incredible demand for subprime auto loans, and this is resulting in loose, and sometimes even reckless, underwriting,” said Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital. “While the Tricolor bankruptcy may seem isolated and idiosyncratic, one would be remiss not to ask whether or not it’s a canary in a coal mine for subprime auto lending.”’
So maybe standard lending practices are part of the problem.
This is a Texas story. Want to know who takes out subprime auto loans in Texas? Illegal immigrants do, and they stop paying when they’re deported. Bad policies can he bad in general ways, but they are always bad in specific effects, as this example demonstrates.
Cresit-market troubles aren’t bad like 2007 mortgages bad, but things are rarely that bad. Credit troubles are building up.
CalCousins@Cal.com
Nope lol. Illegal immigrants do not matter that much. They are being deported less than in 2023-24 even counting textsers. Subprime looked bad last year and defaults surge started in 2023. Pay attention and stop talking your book. Nobody wants labor right now. Corporate America completely pulled out of Latin America at the end of 2023 heavily depressing immigration.
CalCousins@Cal.com
Lazy post. Illegal immigrants don’t matter that much. That bank was train wreck in 2019. It died. Deportations are down in. 2025. Try harder.
baffling
deportations are not the only way to suppress immigrants. many are pushed back into the shadows. maybe not deported, yet, but afraid to put themselves out there and risk the deportation. they are still here, but no longer actively participating in society.
Macroduck
Lazier post. I was paraphrasing the article I linked to:
“Founded in 2007, Tricolor has focused much of its business on the low-income Hispanic community in states such as Texas, California and Nevada. It previously estimated that over two-thirds of its borrowers were undocumented, based on their lack of Social Security numbers.”
And so on. The article relies on actual facts. I paraphrased facts from the article. Your assertions are not supported. All you have is your opinion, which happens to be completely wrong in this case. So thanks for playing.
Happy to have a new guy in the conversation, but you need to do better than this.
Reuters is on it again. They have obtained actual loan documents for Lisa Cook. While the standardized federal mortgage paperwork stipulates that each loan obtained by Cook for the Atlanta and Michigan properties is meant for a “primary residence”, it also states “unless Lender otherwise agrees in writing.”
And indeed, the loan estimate, a document prepared by the credit union in Atlanta, states “Property Use: Vacation Home.” So the credit union was aware and agreed to the terms of the loan for a second home. There is no mortgage fraud.
Bill Pulte and his boss Trump are full of sh*t and don’t have a leg to stand on. That’s why there is no indictment. They intend to fight this with lies and innuendo in public because they cannot win in court.
Nevertheless, they are having an emergency appeals court hearing on Monday in an attempt to prevent Cook from voting in the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile the Senate is expediting the confirmation of Stephen Miran for Monday, even as he keeps his job working for Trump at the White House, in an attempt to pack the Fed board of governors. If they are successful booting Cook and installing Miran, they will have a 3-3 Trumpist split on the committee for the vote next week.
Don’t forget the voting Presidents, none of whom have recently dissented in favor of rate cuts. They’re all beholden to their regional boards. Until next February, ay least, the good guys outnumber the bad guys.
“If they are successful booting Cook and installing Miran, they will have a 3-3 Trumpist split on the committee for the vote next week.”
in trumps defense, his economy is starting to tank. his policies are failing. he has had months.
cook should be suing pulte for defamation and libel. the Supreme Court has shown you cannot sue trump. but that courtesy has not been extended to others.
U. Michigan index of consumer sentiment among Dems 39. Among Independents 51.8. Among Republicans 93.6, but still the lowest since May. MAGA kids know something is wrong.
Index of expectations among Dems 31.1. Independents 47.1. Reps 101.1 MAGA kids may know that something is wrong, but they still live in MAGA world, where the felon and faux news tell them what to think. Everybody else expects the future to be worse than today.
No wonder Brucie has such a hard time understanding inflation and household budgets and stuff. Head full of MAGA.
Here’s a comparison of 10-year term premium vs the 10-year unflation breakeven:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MgsN
The inflation breakeven is drifting up since April, while term premium is headed lower. FRED doesn’t have a series for the exoected funds rate that I know of, but it’s also headed lower. One conventional read on this configuration of factors is an expectation of stagflation. We don’t yet have term premium or breakeven data reflecting the latest CPI release. Tuesday, I think.
Meanwhile, the U Michigan inflation expectations index rose to 4.9% in the preliminary September reading from 4.5% in the August final. Last September, the index was at 2.7%. The Fed is probably going to cut rates next wek, but don’t expect to hear that inflation expectations are well anchored.
Brucie wants us to know that not EVERY price is headed higher. News flash for Brucie: It’s almost never the case that all prices are rising.
Even though not every single price is rising, inflation IS rising. Hiring is just about stalled. Poor and middle-class families are gradually feeling the damage from the Big Bloated Budget Bill. Soldiers are roaming the streets. The rule of law is under attack. Climate change is causing ever more damage and insurance costs are rising as a result. The number of households living paycheck-to-paycheck is rising.
So sentiment is a little sour these days.
test
Off topic – collapse of a sub-prime lender:
https://archive.is/bpqc5
Putting on the old rose-colored glasses, allow me to observe the good news in this report; the collapse was due to fraud. If standard lending practices in the sub-prime auto lending business had led to bankruptcy, that would be far worse than the case before us.
Enough with the rose-tinted specs:
‘“ABS market participants are creating incredible demand for subprime auto loans, and this is resulting in loose, and sometimes even reckless, underwriting,” said Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital. “While the Tricolor bankruptcy may seem isolated and idiosyncratic, one would be remiss not to ask whether or not it’s a canary in a coal mine for subprime auto lending.”’
So maybe standard lending practices are part of the problem.
This is a Texas story. Want to know who takes out subprime auto loans in Texas? Illegal immigrants do, and they stop paying when they’re deported. Bad policies can he bad in general ways, but they are always bad in specific effects, as this example demonstrates.
Cresit-market troubles aren’t bad like 2007 mortgages bad, but things are rarely that bad. Credit troubles are building up.
Nope lol. Illegal immigrants do not matter that much. They are being deported less than in 2023-24 even counting textsers. Subprime looked bad last year and defaults surge started in 2023. Pay attention and stop talking your book. Nobody wants labor right now. Corporate America completely pulled out of Latin America at the end of 2023 heavily depressing immigration.
Lazy post. Illegal immigrants don’t matter that much. That bank was train wreck in 2019. It died. Deportations are down in. 2025. Try harder.
deportations are not the only way to suppress immigrants. many are pushed back into the shadows. maybe not deported, yet, but afraid to put themselves out there and risk the deportation. they are still here, but no longer actively participating in society.
Lazier post. I was paraphrasing the article I linked to:
“Founded in 2007, Tricolor has focused much of its business on the low-income Hispanic community in states such as Texas, California and Nevada. It previously estimated that over two-thirds of its borrowers were undocumented, based on their lack of Social Security numbers.”
And so on. The article relies on actual facts. I paraphrased facts from the article. Your assertions are not supported. All you have is your opinion, which happens to be completely wrong in this case. So thanks for playing.
Happy to have a new guy in the conversation, but you need to do better than this.