Be afraid, be very afraid. From the WSJ article:
Five weeks after President Trump fired the chief of the agency that gathers the country’s labor and price data, his advisers are preparing a report laying out alleged shortcomings of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs data, according to people familiar with the matter.
The report takes a critical look at the BLS and lays out a historical overview of the agency’s jobs-data revisions, they said.
The administration is considering publishing the study, written by the Council of Economic Advisers, in the coming weeks, according to these people.
If this forthcoming report is anything like its analysis of the OBBB (critique here), I suggest running for the hills.
As an aside, if we were to use a CENSUS (and willing to wait eight months for the numbers), then one would find that 0.8% y/y growth rate through December 2024, vs. 1.3% in the CES series. Using the CPS based series adjusted to the NFP concept (which was pushed by Republicans angered by the slow employment growth recorded after the 2001 recession), the growth rate was 0.9%. In other words, precise measurement of COVERED employment leads to lower estimated employment growth.
By the way, NABE is alarmed as well:
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) – the global professional association of 3,000 business economists, applied economists, and data scientists – stands firmly with the dedicated economists and statisticians at BLS and across the federal statistical agencies. BLS staff are singularly focused on accuracy and quality, even in the face of funding cuts, falling survey response rates, and changes in the structure of the economy.