As American agriculture faces declining commodity prices amidst (tariff induced) rising input costs and heavy debt loads, here comes uncertainty, elevated by the Federal shutdown (from De Pillis, NYT):
The Department of Agriculture produces weekly reports on production and global demand that help farmers decide where to market their crops and what to plant next year.
“This is not a great time for the lack of information,” said Todd Davis, the chief economist with the Indiana Farm Bureau. “Farmers are trying to make business plans, pacing their production, whether they want to sell it at harvest or make decisions on storing and carrying it into later this year or early next year to find a higher price.”
Uncertainty detailed (From Purdue/CME, 7 October):
…when asked specifically about whether they expect the increased use of tariffs to strengthen or weaken the U.S. agricultural economy, just over half (51%) said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. That’s down from 63% of June’s survey respondents and 70% of respondents in both the April and May surveys who said they expect the use of tariffs to have a long-run positive impact. Moreover, in September, 30% of respondents said they think the U.S. tariff policy will weaken the agricultural economy, up from 22% who felt that way in April and May. More than twice as many respondents in September (19%) said they were uncertain about the impact of tariffs on the agricultural economy, compared to April and May, when just 8% of respondents said they were uncertain about the impact. Concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. agricultural economy are being offset by expectations among farmers that a program similar to the 2019 MFP will help compensate farmers for lower commodity prices. Eighty-three percent of respondents said they think that an MFP-style program is either likely (21%) or very likely (62%) if a trade war leads to lower prices for U.S. agricultural products.
There aren’t a lot of studies on agricultural policy uncertainty measured by textual analysis (APUI) impacts economic variables although it seems EPU Granger causes agricultural policy uncertainty at the short horizon, in data extending to 2021 (Du, Dong, JAAEA, 2023). APUI in their study positively affects volatility, while simultaneously increasing returns. With currently elevated EPU levels, it is not surprising that farmers perceive heightened uncertainty.
And if subsidizing Argentina so they can sell soybeans to China, undercutting American soybean farmers isn’t enough, now Trump is promoting tariff free imports of Argentina’s beef to undercut American beef producers.
Well, they voted for this.
just over half (51%) said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy
Who are those 51% of respondents and why are they allowed to vote?
For some reason, “Invasion of the Body Snatchers” comes to mind here.
Off topic, and utterly gossipy – this is who Latitia James and Jim Comey are up against:
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anna–lindsey-halligan-here
Lindsey Halligan is the lawyer the felon-in-chief appointed to persecute James and Comey when Justice Department professionals said there was no basis for prosecution. Like most felon appointees, Halligan’s only real qualification is loyalty to the felon.
James and Comey must have popped open the bubbly when Halligan was appointed, and now have reason to order another bottle. Halligan spilled her guts about the James case to a journalist without establishing ground rules – no “off the record” request before she began babbling. No mention of ground rules until after Halligan’s guts were all over the floor.
The felon-in-chief appointed Halligan to prosecute James when U.S. Attorney Erik Siebert (also a felon appointee) declined to bring charges against James and Comey, citing insufficient evidence.
Halligan, real estate lawyer, museum hater and failed beauty contestant with no previous prosecutorial experience, has been firing prosecutors left and right from the her regional U.S. Attorney’s office. One wonders how she expects to win cases against two seasoned legal brawlers who are, by the way, most likely innocent.