On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking

A survey:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 12/16 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 12/19 (red line), St. Louis Fed News index (inverted green triangle), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 12/22 (pink +), Survey of Professional Forecasters November survey median (blue), and 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, Goldman Sachs, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

While nowcasted growth in Q3 is substantially faster than previously forecasted, it is not enough to bring the level of GDP up to the 2023-24 trajectory. Insofar as the momentum in domestic (private) aggregate demand is concerned, it’s fallen since a month ago.

Figure 2: final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of 12/16 (light blue square), Survey of Professional Forecasters November survey median (blue), and 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

 

2 thoughts on “On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking”

  1. Macroduck

    Off topic – Democrats are blowing it, again:

    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3943

    Quinnipiac, back in October, found that 50% of survey respondents preferred Democrats at the mid-term, vs 41% for those other guys. Now, it’s 47%-43%. More immigrant round-ups, further weak labor market performance, continued inflation, more criminal behavior by the felon-in-chief… Democrats should be gaining ground without even trying. Fewer than half of Democrats aporove of how Congressional Democrats are doing their jobs.

    Maybe Democrats could focus on stuff voters care about?

    “…the top two issues for voters are the economy (24 percent) and preserving democracy in the United States (24 percent), followed by immigration (18 percent) and health care (10 percent).”

    Maybe get crackin’ on those.

    1. New Deal democrat

      It’s a long time between now and next November, and oh by the way there is still no budget and the stopgap expires in less than 6 weeks.

      There do not appear to have been any meaningful negotiations, so I am expecting another shutdown plent of time for Chuck Schumer to figure out how to surrender.

      I plan on making weekly contributions to food banks again. Btw, that’s what Carl Quintanilla says he is doing in lieu of Christmas gifts.

Comments are closed.