From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP:
Figure 1: Cumulative change in nonfarm payroll employment from BLS CES-official (blue), implied benchmark release (tan), implied early benchmark (green), from CPS measure adjusted to NFP concept, smoothed population controls, 3 mo centered moving average (red), QCEW total covered seasonally adjusted by author using Census X-13 in logs (pink), and ADP private plus BLS government employment (purple), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS and ADP via FRED, QCEW, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
Philadelphia Fed implied early benchmark calculated by applying ratio of Early benchmark sum of state employment to CES sum of state employment to the total series PAYEMS, as reported by BLS.
According to every measure shown above, employment is currently below peak. Caveat: civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, not expressed as a centered moving average, are above recent peak. However,
Only BLS and ADP private nonfarm payroll employment are above the 2025M07 peak (and the latter by 0.02%). However, we know that these post-shutdown observations are subject to larger than normal measurement error.
Off topic – ICE and timid Democratic leadership:
The felon-in-chief’s voter approval is at a low point for his current administration, a net negative by a substantial margin. Voter approval of his immigration policy in general is a net negative and outrage over ICE killings is widespread.
Why, then, are Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries unwilling to vote against a massive increase in the ICE budget? Democrats have the power to prevent appropriation, but their “leaders” won’t allow it. Under the dealto end last year’s government shutdown, a new appropriation is needed by January 30, so the vote is happening soon. Yes, the felon would probably declare ICE essential to national security and fund ICE anyway, but that’s no reason to vote to fund an out-of-control goon squad.
And here’s a tactical suggestion. Tell ICE Barbie she can’t have funding unless she submits to Congressional oversight, thereby reasserting Congressional authority and supporting the separation of powers. You know, the Constitution and all of that. Insist that she testify under oath and pin her down during questioning. If she lies, make a referral to the DOJ for perjury during the next presidential administration. Accountability is important.
Seriously, what are Schumer and Jeffries afraid of?
Here’s a rundown of ICE funding in the Big Bloated Bill passed last year:
https://substack.com/@stephensemler/p-169001788#_
Off topic – ICE and timid Democratic leadership:
The felon-in-chief’s voter approval is at a low point for his current administration, a net negative by a substantial margin. Voter approval of his immigration policy in general is a net negative and outrage over ICE killings is widespread.
Why, then, are Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries unwilling to vote against a massive increase in the ICE budget? Democrats have the power to prevent appropriation, but their “leaders” won’t allow it. Under the dealto end last year’s government shutdown, a new appropriation is needed by January 30, so the vote is happening soon. Yes, the felon would probably declare ICE essential to national security and fund ICE anyway, but that’s no reason to vote to fund an out-of-control goon squad.
And here’s a tactical suggestion. Tell ICE Barbie she can’t have funding unless she submits to Congressional oversight, thereby reasserting Congressional authority and supporting the separation of powers. You know, the Constitution and all of that. Insist that she testify under oath and pin her down during questioning. If she lies, make a referral to the DOJ for perjury during the next presidential administration. Accountability is important.
Seriously, what are Schumer and Jeffries afraid of?
Here’s a rundown of ICE funding in the Big Bloated Bill passed last year:
https://substack.com/@stephensemler/p-169001788#_
Jerome Powell has issued a statement today that the Department of Justice has served subpoenas to the Federal Reserve and threatens criminal indictment relating to Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee regarding expenses for renovations of the Federal Reserve office buildings. Criminal indictment of the Federal Reserve Chairman!!
This is a major escalation in Trump’s war on the Federal Reserve, trying to criminally charge Powell. No doubt this is in part retaliation for Powell’s humiliation of Trump on camera when Trump tried to trap Powell with a phony expense report and which Powell took 10 seconds to point out the errors, on camera.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm
Powell really has the opportunity to stick it to Trump, and he really should do so to preserve the independence of the Fed. While Powell’s term as Chairman expires in May, his seat on the Board of Governors does not expire until 2028. So Powell could remain on the Board after his Chairmanship expires. Since the new chairman must be a member of the board, it means that there would be no vacant seat for Kevin Hassett and thereby making him ineligible for the chairmanship.
I suppose Miran could resign and Hassett take his seat, but then that reduces the number of Trumpists on the board. Trump would get one or the other but not both.
One would hope that this deliberate provocation would blow up in Trump’s face. Powell should clearly see now that he needs to keep his board seat for the good of the country.