Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast indicates 0.84% m/m increase in March, based on weekly gasoline and daily oil prices.

Figure 1: Headline CPI (blue, left log scale), quarter-on-quarter annualized inflation, % (red, right scale). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 3/31, and author’s calculations.

The nowcast for headline PCE m/m inflation is 0.61% (vs. 0.84% for headline CPI)

It’s no wonder what’s driving the nowcast.

On weekly data, the year-on-year growth rate of gasoline prices is 26.2%, while that for diesel is 50.4%.