From Polymarket just now:
Source: Polymarket accessed 4 March 2026, 4:30pm CT.
Previous spike to $62 due to “whatever it takes” remark by Mr. Trump.
Current betting is 70% chance of cease-fire by end-June. War Powers Act requires withdrawal of troops within 60-90 days of commencement of hostilities (end-May), unless Congress acts.
We’re talking to Kurdish forces in and near Iran about air, intelligence and logistics support if they’ll handle ground operations.
‘Cause that always works out so well for them.
Kurds should demand lots of drones in order to take this one. Big problem has always been that Kurdistan is part of Iran, Iraq and Turkey. All 3 countries have always been very much against giving weapons to Kurds in any country for fear that they would eventually be used by Kurdish freedom fighters in their country.
Locked in a refinance at 5.5% last week. Dont think it goes lower soon unless economy collapses or ww3 breaks out. Cash flow improves greatly for the month.
Anybody else find it interesting that noem would not answer yes or no on sleeping with lewandowski while under oath? Especially while living in coast guard quarters.
Not my read
Andrew Gelman’s blog has an interesting article on prediction markets.