As of yesterday, open sources indicate:
Source: USNI, accessed 3/17/2026.
The composition and capabilities of the ARG are described here. That being said, the prediction markets are indicating an ever lower probability of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to general traffic (although Iranian sanctioned ships can enter and exit at the moment).
Source: Polymarket, accessed 3/17, 4pm.
The current probability estimate is 25%, versus 79% a week ago. The likely irrelevance of the ARG redeployment for re-opening the Strait is explained in this short primer.
NavalNews reports:
The transfer of the the Tripoli ARG marks the most major assets that have been moved out of INDOPACOM’s inventory thus far, as the Tripoli had been assigned to 7th Fleet’s area of responsibility as a part of the U.S. military’s contingent in Japan. It has been noted that primarily air-defense assets had been previously commandeered from INDOPACOM, with both THAAD and Patriot battery components (primarily Transport Erector Launchers and missiles) being reportedly moved to the Middle East from Korea.
So, it’s not just amphibious attack resources being moved, air defense assets are also being reallocated. Given the importance deterring Chinese expansionism, this seems foolhardy given the lack of imminent threat from Iran. But that’s just me.
Addendum:
Alternative betting platform Kalshi rates 29% probability of re-opening by May 1 as of 7pm (compared to 26% on Polymarket).
Source: Kalshi, accessed 3/17 7pm CT.
I realize that some might find prediction markets useful but Polymarket is a particularly distasteful example. First of all, it is based on crypto. Second, it has a long history of very suspicious insider trading. Third, it allows betting on things like battles and assassinations and has even had gamblers issue death threats to journalists to change reporting that affects bettors’ outcomes. And last, a primary investor and adviser is Donnie Jr, appointed in exchange for a corrupt favorable ruling from federal regulators.
joseph: I add in Kalshi betting in the addendum to the post.
If I were going to attack an Asian ally (erstwhile?) of the U.S., I might instigate a conflict elsewhere, in order to draw U.S. defensive assets away from my intended target.
Not that anyone would ever want to challenge the U.S. after seeing how decisively the U.S. has beaten Iran into submission.
By the way, anybody else notice the felon-in-chief’s latest love note to U.S. allies? Real coalition building.