Polymarket reports betting that Stephen Miran will dissent with 98% probability, up from 89.1% on the eve of the Iran war. To me, the interesting question is not whether he dissents, but how he justifies his vote (does he still believe that r* has declined?).
Presumably, he’s stayed at a 50 bps cut, while the FOMC as a whole has been assessed by the market as moving more to holding still at no cut.
Note that Jay Powell has the power to boot Miran’s a** right out of the Board of Governors. When Powell’s term as Fed Chair is up in May, he can continue for another two years on the Board. This would mean that in order for Trump to install Warsh as his next Fed Chair, he would have to force Miran to resign to make room on the Board for Warsh.
If Powell resigns the Board, then Trump will get to keep two toadies, Miran and Warsh. Powell has earned his retirement but the Federal Reserve is in crisis — now is not the time to abandon it.