Up 0.26 ppts since the war’s beginning. Using Treasury and TIPS:
Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), expected 5 year inflation from DKW (red), both in %. Source: Treasury via FRED, Fed.
Detail, with oil prices:
Figure 2: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread, % (blue, left scale), price of oil, Brent, $/bbl (red). Source: Treasury via FRED, EIA.
Why isn’t every Democrat politician out there every day, at every opportunity telling Americans that Donald Trump is asking them to spend $1,500 from every household for his war? $200 billion is real money. On top of the Pentagon’s already bloated budget.
if you are a trump voting truck driver, kind of sucks that he is putting you out of business with the new cost for diesel.
and just as a reminder, for all those cheering on the trump AI push especially for data centers. spending right? well those data centers are going to increase your electricity bill BIGGLY. and AI is going to shift a fairly large number of trump voters to the unemployment line. and the trump voting senior citizens without a passport or drivers license-talking to you grandma-are not gonna be allowed to vote in the next election. this is not a small number. president chaos continues. and unless you refinanced in the last month, those mortgage rates are gone. even though he promised 3% mortgages, even a 5% mortgage handle is in the rear view mirror. stagflation will ensure that for the next couple of years.