In the wake of Trump’s musings, from Polymarket:
According to Polymarket, the contract reads:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”….
“Yes” could mean taking an island for a day, or long term occupation.
No GPRD measures after 3/3 yet. EPU through 3/7 below:
Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (teal, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, and CBOE via FRED.
Felon-in-chief: “I would say if we ever did that [put U.S. troops into Iran] they [Iran] would be so decimated that they wouldn’t be able to fight at the ground level.”
I’m no expert, but I’m pretty sure the felon is spouting nonsense. Bombing isn’t very effective in killing troops. Bombing destroys stuff and forces troops to shelter, both of which reduce their effectiveness. Bullets are generally more effective at inflicting casualties. If we aren’t going to put troops into Iran until Iran’s soldiers can no longer fight, then we aren’t going to put troups into Iran.
The most reasonable objective, at first look, that I’ve been able to dig up for U.S. troops in Iran is to secure nuclear material. Seems like something our military would plan for, but it’s a mystery to me how it would be done, how much manpower would be needed for how long, all that stuff.
Alternatively, grab Kharg Island.
There is an increasing likelihood that there will be “boots on the ground” in Iran, but perhaps not in the way most people think. There are two strategic objectives where deploying ground forces not only makes sense, but are critical: uranium storage facilities and Kharg Island. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/army-unit-moves-trigger-speculation-170109732.html
I’ll just offer up and interesting read and an alternative perspective than “the sky is falling”: https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/gentlemens-agreements-sunday-march
Sure, many things could go wrong chief among which is that the IRGC decides to go scorched earth in their own country before they surrender in a last gasp effort to disrupt global oil markets. But that might be too little too late. Iran has been relying on Muslim fanaticism to create an untenable situation for the US and Israel, but they screwed that pooch when they attacked the Arab states. Now ever Qatar has had enough and is kicking out Hamas leadership.
https://www.jfeed.com/middleeast/qatar-expels-hamas-leaders
“Iran has been relying on Muslim fanaticism to create an untenable situation for the US and Israel…”
Untenable for the U.S. how, exactly? Iran doesn’t send trouble to the U.S. That’s mostly a Saudi thing. The big offense on Iran’s part was to overthrow a U.S. puppet regime and grab some hostages. Those both happened on Iranian soil a and were 3 and a half decades ago. Since then, Iran has antagonized the U.S. in the Middle East, and the U.S. has antagonized Iran in the Middle East. Nothing much has changed in that period, so how is the sitiation untenable now? Shrub and the felon-in-chief have both provoked Iran into pursuing the potential for nuclear deterence, without Iranever building a nuke. That hasn’t changed. How is the sitiation suddenly untenable for the U.S.?
Oh, and if you think fanaticism is what Iran’s leaders depend on, you didn’t even comprehend your own link. Along with a massive internal security apparatus, Iran’s leaders depend on economic control that run wide and deep.
In fact, Brucie, with his “untenable” nonsense, is pretending that the felon-in-chief has explained why the U.S. had to go to war. He has not. We have no reason to think the U.S. or U.S. interests were at greater risk two weeks ago than two months or two years ago.
And that “Coffee and Covid” link? So what? A felon supporter lecturing other felon supporters about sticking to the felon-approved narrative is not just “an alternative perspective”. It’s MAGA echo-chamber stuff. Aside from the slap at Nate Silver (real high class), all of the author’s “sky is falling” links are to felon supporters worrying that the felon has stepped in it. Outside of the echo chamber, who cares?
Bruce Hall: Why take Kharg? That doesn’t help at all open up the Strait of Hormuz (CSIS).
How did I miss this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/03/03/capital-gains-tax-relief-cruz/
Three Republican Senators have asked that Treasury cut capital gains taxes by about $200 billion without goingthrough Congress to do it. (One year or ten years? Doesn’t say.) The trick is to index the value of capital assets to inflation.
Huge increase to the deficit due to the Big Bloated Budget Bill. Another $130 billion imcrease in the deficit due to the Supreme Court ruling against the Mad King’s IEEPA tariffs. Now we’ll tack another $200 billion onto the deficit to benefit mostly rich people? Not even clear that it would be legal, but who cares, right?
Country Joe McDonald died yesterday at 80:
Well come on all of you big strong men, Uncle Sam needs your help again,
he’s got himself in a terrible jam, way down yonder in Vietnam,
so put down your books and pick up a gun, we’re gonna have a whole lotta fun.
Now come on generals let’s move fast, your big chance has come at last.
gotta go out and get those reds, cuz the only good commie is one that’s dead,
you know that peace can only be won, when you blow em all to kingdom come.
Now come on wall street don’t be slow, why man, this is war-a-go-go,
there’s plenty good money to be made, by supplyin’ the army with the tools of the trade,
just hope and pray that when they drop the bomb, they drop it on the Vietcong.
Now come on mothers throughout the land, pack your boys off to Vietnam,
come on fathers don’t hesitate, send them off before it’s too late,
be the first one on your block, to have your boy come home in a box.
And its 1, 2, 3 what are we fightin’ for?
don’t ask me i don’t give a damn, the next stop is Vietnam,
and its 5, 6, 7 open up the pearly gates. Well there ain’t no time to wonder why…Whoopee! We’re all gunna die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ft0vkKCadgk
Some things never change.