Inflation break-even as of today: 2.61%

Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), expected 5 year inflation from DKW (red), both in %. Source: Treasury via FRED, Fed.

2.61% compares with the 2.4% spread reported on 2/27.

For March, the NY Fed median 5 year ahead inflation reading is 3.05%, U.Michigan at 3.2%,  compared to the average Treasury-TIPS break-even of 2.55%, and DKW average estimate of 2.64%.