Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
From Kalshi:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/8/2026, 4:10pm CT.
14 thoughts on “Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait”
Macroduck
One way of squaring low expectations of reopening Hormuz with the drop in oil prices is that Hormuz won’t fully reopen, but that Iran will allow more traffic through the Strait. Iran had, for instance, suggested a “humanitarian corridor” for fertilizer prior to the ceasefire deal. And the war-criminal-in-chief’s latest TACO suggests some desparation to get oil flowing. So it maybe something less thsn “hormuz is open” could be in the works.
Meanwhile, December 2026 oil futures are still pretty close to the March 20 high, well above the pre-war level.
Not Trampis
Trump has credibility??????
Willie
No. Not that he ever did for people who pay attention.
joseph
Is there a prediction market for when the first air traveler is shot by an ICE agent in an airport?
joseph
It seems we are back to Schrödinger’s Strait. Who will be first to look inside?
Macroduck
China reportedly had an important role in persuading Iran to enter a ceasefire. Israel has now bombed the Iran-China rail rail line, part of China’s belt-and-road initiative. Draw your own conclusions, but I think Bibi just made an enemy.
There is reporting suggesting that Shabbaz Sharifs tweet announcing the Iran ceasefire was written by a party outside Pakistan. That leaves open the possibility ot was written by U.S. negotiators. That tweet said Lebanon would be covered by the ceasefire. Iran’s contention is that the U.S. is not a reliable negotiating partner; one can see how they would come to that conclussion.
Speaking of prediction markets, there are currently 4 live bets at Kalshi which I believe to be closely related.
House majority next year – 83% Democratic.
Odds of a member of the Cabinet being impeached nect year – 74%.
Odds of the war-criminal-in-chief being impeached next year – 67%.
Senate majority next year – 51% Democratic.
Odds the war criminal will be impeached and removed from office – 23%.
In this final case, the odds either reflect some expectation of a revolt among Senate Republicans or a misunderstanding of what the Constitution requires to remove a sitting president from office.
Macroduck
Sorry – five live bets.
joseph
Holy moly! This is beyond the pale.
David Kurtz reports that Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby summoned the Vatican ambassador to the United States to the Pentagon and issued a dire threat: “The United States has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world. The Catholic Church had better take its side.”
Colby then proceeded to raise the example of the Avignon Papacy of the 14th century in which the government of France took over the papacy and resulted in the imprisonment and death of the Roman pope.
This is an unsubtle death threat to Pope Leo if he doesn’t fall in line with Trump’s war. Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba and now the Vatican — all threatened with hostile takeover.
These Trump people are all psychopaths. Can you imagine a Department of Defense War secretary summoning the Vatican ambassador for a dressing down and hostile threats? Is there no end to the insanity?
And where is Little Marco in all of this. Is he just a potted plant? Isn’t international relations between embassies under the purview of the State Department, not the Department of Defense War? Are all of these psychopaths just freelancing now wherever their whims take them?
Macroduck
Grandpa Bill must be turning over in his grave, and Bill was never much for subtlety.
Colby has never had a real job. He has prowled around the Iraq Coalition Authority, the Jeb Bush campaign and the two felon administrations. He’s a highly placed nobody, trying to be somebody.
When the press reports that Colby’s action is “unprecedented”, there’s a reason for that. The State Department and the White House engage in formal diplomatic activity on behalf of the U.S. government, not other departments of government and certainly not some sub-cabinet level nobody with a fancy family tree. In a well-run administration, Colby would have to prostrate himself before Rubio on the 7th floor, then slink out of town. In this administration, he provides the war-criminal-in-chief anf his keg-standing sidekick deniability and a laugh. We’ll probably hear next that he’s on the negotiating team, headed for Islamabad.
joseph
Ha, I didn’t know Colby was an apple fallen from the same tree.
He has a history of freelancing. He was the guy who last summer unitarily paused the shipment of arms to Ukraine without the knowledge of Hegseth or Trump. Caused a minor uproar. I’m surprised he survived at Defense. Nobody seems to like him.
Macroduck
OK, last one, I promise. Maybe.
The Iran ceasefire is scheduled to last for two weeks. Let’s ignore violations and the fact that Hormuz remains mostly closed. Two weeks is not long enough – not by a longshot – to restart energy, fertilizer and aluminum production in the Gulf region. The whole point of the ceasefire is to allow negotiation of a longer-term settlement. A round of talks is scheduled in Pakistan this weekend. Certainly, views are being exchanged between parties ahead of this weekend, including about what was agreed to to initiate the ceasefire. Having that as a starting point is not auspicious, but consider who the parties are.
Whether Israel will continue committing war crimes in Lebanon is high on the list of issues, and that decision is pretty much down to what the U.S. wants. Seems like we want lower oil prices, but the guy making the decision is kinda flighty, so who knows?
Normalization of the payment of tolls to Iran may also be on the weekend agenda, though I’d try to put that off if I were on the U.S. negotiating team. Not only are the other Gulf states very much opposed to giving Iran control over Hormuz – not to mention billions in payments – but the Law of the Sea and free navigation are at risk. Pretty much everybody but Iran, China and the U.S. want to maintain the rules we have. Pretty much everyone in the U.S. outside the Oval Office wants to maintain the rules we have. China is probably relishing the precedent that paying tolls to Iran would set; there goes freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
Anyhow, we may be in for some oil-price volatility around the weekend.
Anonymous
There should be a prediction market on when Trump and Netanyahu launch a decapitation/assassination strike on the new Ayatollah before Sunday Apr 12. Might as well murder the son after murdering the father!
As to the 5 sided wind tunnels who needs half an army to rescue a downed F-15 WSO, they should read Pope Leo’s homily from Palm Sunday and his Easter message!
One way of squaring low expectations of reopening Hormuz with the drop in oil prices is that Hormuz won’t fully reopen, but that Iran will allow more traffic through the Strait. Iran had, for instance, suggested a “humanitarian corridor” for fertilizer prior to the ceasefire deal. And the war-criminal-in-chief’s latest TACO suggests some desparation to get oil flowing. So it maybe something less thsn “hormuz is open” could be in the works.
Meanwhile, December 2026 oil futures are still pretty close to the March 20 high, well above the pre-war level.
Trump has credibility??????
No. Not that he ever did for people who pay attention.
Is there a prediction market for when the first air traveler is shot by an ICE agent in an airport?
It seems we are back to Schrödinger’s Strait. Who will be first to look inside?
China reportedly had an important role in persuading Iran to enter a ceasefire. Israel has now bombed the Iran-China rail rail line, part of China’s belt-and-road initiative. Draw your own conclusions, but I think Bibi just made an enemy.
There is reporting suggesting that Shabbaz Sharifs tweet announcing the Iran ceasefire was written by a party outside Pakistan. That leaves open the possibility ot was written by U.S. negotiators. That tweet said Lebanon would be covered by the ceasefire. Iran’s contention is that the U.S. is not a reliable negotiating partner; one can see how they would come to that conclussion.
Traffic through Hormuz is still just a trickle:
https://www.marinetraffic.org/HORMUZ%20STRAIT/ship-traffic-tracker
https://www.hormuztracker.com/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/shipping-traffic-through-hormuz-virtual-standstill-despite-ceasefire-data-shows-2026-04-09/
WTI up 3.2% today.
Speaking of prediction markets, there are currently 4 live bets at Kalshi which I believe to be closely related.
House majority next year – 83% Democratic.
Odds of a member of the Cabinet being impeached nect year – 74%.
Odds of the war-criminal-in-chief being impeached next year – 67%.
Senate majority next year – 51% Democratic.
Odds the war criminal will be impeached and removed from office – 23%.
In this final case, the odds either reflect some expectation of a revolt among Senate Republicans or a misunderstanding of what the Constitution requires to remove a sitting president from office.
Sorry – five live bets.
Holy moly! This is beyond the pale.
David Kurtz reports that Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby summoned the Vatican ambassador to the United States to the Pentagon and issued a dire threat: “The United States has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world. The Catholic Church had better take its side.”
Colby then proceeded to raise the example of the Avignon Papacy of the 14th century in which the government of France took over the papacy and resulted in the imprisonment and death of the Roman pope.
This is an unsubtle death threat to Pope Leo if he doesn’t fall in line with Trump’s war. Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba and now the Vatican — all threatened with hostile takeover.
These Trump people are all psychopaths. Can you imagine a Department of
DefenseWar secretary summoning the Vatican ambassador for a dressing down and hostile threats? Is there no end to the insanity?https://talkingpointsmemo.com/morning-memo/pentagon-threatened-pope-after-he-criticized-trump
And where is Little Marco in all of this. Is he just a potted plant? Isn’t international relations between embassies under the purview of the State Department, not the Department of
DefenseWar? Are all of these psychopaths just freelancing now wherever their whims take them?Grandpa Bill must be turning over in his grave, and Bill was never much for subtlety.
Colby has never had a real job. He has prowled around the Iraq Coalition Authority, the Jeb Bush campaign and the two felon administrations. He’s a highly placed nobody, trying to be somebody.
When the press reports that Colby’s action is “unprecedented”, there’s a reason for that. The State Department and the White House engage in formal diplomatic activity on behalf of the U.S. government, not other departments of government and certainly not some sub-cabinet level nobody with a fancy family tree. In a well-run administration, Colby would have to prostrate himself before Rubio on the 7th floor, then slink out of town. In this administration, he provides the war-criminal-in-chief anf his keg-standing sidekick deniability and a laugh. We’ll probably hear next that he’s on the negotiating team, headed for Islamabad.
Ha, I didn’t know Colby was an apple fallen from the same tree.
He has a history of freelancing. He was the guy who last summer unitarily paused the shipment of arms to Ukraine without the knowledge of Hegseth or Trump. Caused a minor uproar. I’m surprised he survived at Defense. Nobody seems to like him.
OK, last one, I promise. Maybe.
The Iran ceasefire is scheduled to last for two weeks. Let’s ignore violations and the fact that Hormuz remains mostly closed. Two weeks is not long enough – not by a longshot – to restart energy, fertilizer and aluminum production in the Gulf region. The whole point of the ceasefire is to allow negotiation of a longer-term settlement. A round of talks is scheduled in Pakistan this weekend. Certainly, views are being exchanged between parties ahead of this weekend, including about what was agreed to to initiate the ceasefire. Having that as a starting point is not auspicious, but consider who the parties are.
Whether Israel will continue committing war crimes in Lebanon is high on the list of issues, and that decision is pretty much down to what the U.S. wants. Seems like we want lower oil prices, but the guy making the decision is kinda flighty, so who knows?
Normalization of the payment of tolls to Iran may also be on the weekend agenda, though I’d try to put that off if I were on the U.S. negotiating team. Not only are the other Gulf states very much opposed to giving Iran control over Hormuz – not to mention billions in payments – but the Law of the Sea and free navigation are at risk. Pretty much everybody but Iran, China and the U.S. want to maintain the rules we have. Pretty much everyone in the U.S. outside the Oval Office wants to maintain the rules we have. China is probably relishing the precedent that paying tolls to Iran would set; there goes freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
Anyhow, we may be in for some oil-price volatility around the weekend.
There should be a prediction market on when Trump and Netanyahu launch a decapitation/assassination strike on the new Ayatollah before Sunday Apr 12. Might as well murder the son after murdering the father!
As to the 5 sided wind tunnels who needs half an army to rescue a downed F-15 WSO, they should read Pope Leo’s homily from Palm Sunday and his Easter message!