One year ahead inflation expectations down 10 bps, sentiment up 2 points:
Figure 1: One year ahead [median] CPI inflation expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (blue), [median] from NY Fed (red), [mean] from Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) (teal +), Cleveland Fed model based (light brown), [median] from Survey of Professional Forecasters (sky blue square), all in %. Source: U.Mich via FRED, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed [1], [2], Philadelphia Fed.
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, NBER, and author’s calculations.
TACO, Fed edition. Thom Tillis scores.
DA Jeanine Pirro: “Note well, however, I will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant doing so.”
Jay, don’t fall for it! Stick out your remaining two-year term, or at least until after the mid-term elections. Don’t let Trump put a second sycophant toady on the Board.
Trump cannot install Warsh without a seat opening on the Board. Don’t just hand it to him.
And you need to stick up for Lisa Cook as well. The future of the entire Federal Reserve is at stake. Don’t surrender the Fed they way they surrendered the Supreme Court. Warsh has pledged to deregulate and unleash the monsters of Wall Street.
And if that is not clear enough, here is press secretary Leavitt: “The case is not being dropped. It’s just being moved over to another authority…the investigation continues.”
Trump’s attempt to gut the Federal Reserve continues — for both Powell and Cook. Stop Kevin Warsh!
Off topic – taking a toll on global trade:
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156996/Houthis-have-discussed-implementing-Red-Sea-tolls-says-UK-security-firm
Sorey. Couldn’t help myself.
Houthi authorities have been talking to security firms about imposing tolls on Red Sea ship traffic. That’s Iran in the Persian Gulf (with the felon-in-chief asking to collect vig), Malaysia in the Strait of Malacca and the Houthis in the Red Sea. In less than two months, we’ve gine from freedom of navigation as a widely accepted norm to robber baron aspirations in three major commercial waterways.
Remind me – which Great Power leader has consistently repudiated international norms in recent years? Sow => Reap.