One year ahead inflation expectations down 10 bps, sentiment up 2 points:

Figure 1: One year ahead [median] CPI inflation expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (blue), [median] from NY Fed (red), [mean] from Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) (teal +), Cleveland Fed model based (light brown), [median] from Survey of Professional Forecasters (sky blue square), all in %. Source: U.Mich via FRED, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed [1], [2], Philadelphia Fed.

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, NBER, and author’s calculations.