Employment and goods exports have declined. GDP flatlines in Q4.
Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, in 000’s (blue, left log scale), real goods exports in mn2000$ (red, right log scale). Nominal exports seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 in logs, deflated to real exports using US goods exports deflator. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, DWD and author’s calculations.
Wisconsin employment was rising through September 2024, and has been trending down since then. Real exports have been clearly falling since liberation day.
The Philadelphia Fed provides a check on the official employment (NFP) series in its early benchmark. Through September, it appears employment is indeed falling from “Liberation Day”
Figure 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and early benchmark (light blue), both i 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, Philadelphia Fed.
Focus on employment growth is probably not advisable in a period where labor force, due to restricted immigration, is barely growing. DWD indicates that the Wisconsin labor force has barely budged in the last year ending February. Here are two aggregate measures of activity: real GDP and total wages and salaries.
Figure 3: GDP, in mn.Ch.2017$ (blue, left log scale), total wages and salaries, in mn 1982-84$ (brown, right log scale). Total wages and salaries deflated by CPI. Source: BEA, CPI via FRED, ad author’s calculations.
Real GDP flattened out in Q4; with national GDP forecasted to grow 2.8% q/q annualized, Wisconsin GDP growth is likely to recover in Q1. Nonetheless, growth has definitely slowed.
Off topic – Another war?:
https://nordicmonitor.com/2026/04/turkey-has-quietly-preparing-a-war-with-israel-primary-target/
The title says “quietly”, but in fact, Turkey’s foreign minister has recently said that Israel needs a foreign enemy and that Turkey may be next in line after the war with Iran ends.
So a few things.
– First, Israel may need a foreign enemy, maybe not, but Netanyahu surely does. The Gaza war helped to keep him out of court and he tried to ise theIran war forthe same purpose, but the courts have said “no”; his corruption trial is about to resume.
– Erdogan also needs a foreign adversary, and Israel is his favorite, but that has never lef to war.
– About 40% of Israel’s oil imports come from Azerbaijan through Turkey. Turkey has imposed an embargo on trade with Israel, but the oil still gets through. As long as Erdogan is just belly-aching about Israel, the oil flows, but it’s hard to imagine Turkey would’nt use oil as a weapon in a shooting war.
– Turkey, like Iran, is huge. Picking a fight against Turkey would be nuts. Israel has been spared some of the disruption of oil due to the Iran war because nearly half of Israel’s oil comes from Azerbaijan. War with Turkey could end Azerbaijani oil flow for a long time.
– Turkey is a NATO member. Article 5 says NATO has to defend Turkey against Israel if Israel attacks.