Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
One Day in Trump’s Iran War
Odds for Hormuz reopening by July 1 up and then down relative to 24 hours ago; Brent went down and then back up.
9 thoughts on “One Day in Trump’s Iran War”
Macroduck
Xi and the war-criminal-in-chief are due to meet next week, the 14th and 15th. The criminal will want to avoid any loss of face from now till the 16th, and his own calculation of “face” is paramount. I have no clear notion of how he assesses these things, ’cause he’s a malignant narcissist and I’m not, but I’m confident maintaining face is all he’s thinking about.
Macroduck
Trade court says the felon-in-chief’s latest global tariff is illegal, and no backsies:
That’s the second broad-based, baseless tariff the courts have overturned. Meanwhile, two immediate trade thingies are looking a little uncertain. The felon has just thretened the EU with a big tariff increase unless they make him happy and he meets Xi next week about trade after having the rug pulled out from under his trade regime.
Great timing!
Bruce Hall
The alternative scenario is an Iraq 2.0 with massive ground power and destruction or a Ukraine-Russia scenario that grinds on for years. The current approach has been to limit infrastructure and civilian casualties while eliminating much of the theocracy’s ability to wage war and obtain nuclear weapons for their jihad. Some economic inconvenience comes with that approach.
Pgl
Baghdad Bruce?
Mscroduck
Hey!
You back for good?
Macroduck
You really have been drinking the koolaid. Not an original thought in what you typed here – pure war-boy talking points.
You should check the ingredient list on that koolaid; it’s mostly bull droppings.
The alternative scenario was the JCPOA. Iran had largely complied with the Agreement. The same guy who started a war to stop Iran from developing a nuke – with no evidence Iran was near doing so – is the guy who walked away from the JCPOA. He’s also the guy whose crazy talking points you’re aping here.
Ivan
When the Orange Idiot took power first time around we were on the path to limit bot North Korea and Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Now NK has at least a dozen nukes and the ICBMs to hit US with them. Iran will have the nukes within a couple of years even if we bog ourselves down into a ground war quagmire like Ukraine – Russia. Never undestimate the ability of the Orange idiot to take a difficult situation and make it much worse.
joseph
North Korea was Bush Jr’s debacle. Clinton had negotiated a deal with North Korea that resulted in seals on bomb nuclear facilities and on site inspectors. Bush, in 2001, in his “opposite of everything Clinton” policy torpedoed the deal and in a few years North Korea set off their first nuclear bomb.
Obama negotiated the JCPOA with Iran that resulted in seals on nuclear facilities and on site inspectors. Trump, in 2017, in his “opposite of everything Obama” policy torpedoed the deal and soon the centrifuges were spinning to make high-grade uranium for bombs.
So you are right that Republican’s “opposite of everything Democrat” policies are responsible for where we are today, but the North Korea debacle was Bush and the Iran debacle was Trump.
But it is a consistent history. Democrats negotiate a deal that removes the threat and Republicans blow it up and increase the threat. Just like Democrats fix up the economy and Republicans then blow up the economy, over and over.
Xi and the war-criminal-in-chief are due to meet next week, the 14th and 15th. The criminal will want to avoid any loss of face from now till the 16th, and his own calculation of “face” is paramount. I have no clear notion of how he assesses these things, ’cause he’s a malignant narcissist and I’m not, but I’m confident maintaining face is all he’s thinking about.
Trade court says the felon-in-chief’s latest global tariff is illegal, and no backsies:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/business/economy/trump-global-tariff-ruled-illegal.html
That’s the second broad-based, baseless tariff the courts have overturned. Meanwhile, two immediate trade thingies are looking a little uncertain. The felon has just thretened the EU with a big tariff increase unless they make him happy and he meets Xi next week about trade after having the rug pulled out from under his trade regime.
Great timing!
The alternative scenario is an Iraq 2.0 with massive ground power and destruction or a Ukraine-Russia scenario that grinds on for years. The current approach has been to limit infrastructure and civilian casualties while eliminating much of the theocracy’s ability to wage war and obtain nuclear weapons for their jihad. Some economic inconvenience comes with that approach.
Baghdad Bruce?
Hey!
You back for good?
You really have been drinking the koolaid. Not an original thought in what you typed here – pure war-boy talking points.
You should check the ingredient list on that koolaid; it’s mostly bull droppings.
The alternative scenario was the JCPOA. Iran had largely complied with the Agreement. The same guy who started a war to stop Iran from developing a nuke – with no evidence Iran was near doing so – is the guy who walked away from the JCPOA. He’s also the guy whose crazy talking points you’re aping here.
When the Orange Idiot took power first time around we were on the path to limit bot North Korea and Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Now NK has at least a dozen nukes and the ICBMs to hit US with them. Iran will have the nukes within a couple of years even if we bog ourselves down into a ground war quagmire like Ukraine – Russia. Never undestimate the ability of the Orange idiot to take a difficult situation and make it much worse.
North Korea was Bush Jr’s debacle. Clinton had negotiated a deal with North Korea that resulted in seals on bomb nuclear facilities and on site inspectors. Bush, in 2001, in his “opposite of everything Clinton” policy torpedoed the deal and in a few years North Korea set off their first nuclear bomb.
Obama negotiated the JCPOA with Iran that resulted in seals on nuclear facilities and on site inspectors. Trump, in 2017, in his “opposite of everything Obama” policy torpedoed the deal and soon the centrifuges were spinning to make high-grade uranium for bombs.
So you are right that Republican’s “opposite of everything Democrat” policies are responsible for where we are today, but the North Korea debacle was Bush and the Iran debacle was Trump.
But it is a consistent history. Democrats negotiate a deal that removes the threat and Republicans blow it up and increase the threat. Just like Democrats fix up the economy and Republicans then blow up the economy, over and over.
Thought some here might take interest. The digital version of the textbook is supposed to be 100% free.
https://www.foundationsandfutures.org/#table-of-content
I thought Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick’s book was pretty good covering some of the Asian topics.