Latest Kalshi estimates on re-opening by September 1:

Figure 1: Oil price, Brent $/bbl (black, left scale), cash NYMEX for 7/17 (gray +), and Kalshi prediction of Sept 1 re-opening of Strait of Hormuz (blue, right scale). Source: EIA, NYMEX via barchart, Kalshi.

One would think the two series would have moved inversely  but until the 6th or so, they have not. That is something of a mystery.

The cash reading was for 7/16 closing (NYMEX) at $88.