TIPS 30 year yields up 55 bps since the War’s start; 10 year up 69 bps.
Figure 1: TIPS 30 year yield, % (blue). Green shading denotes US-Iran War. Source: Treasury.
Figure 2: TIPS 10 year yield, % (blue). Green shading denotes US-Iran War. Source: Treasury.
The Missing Profits of Nations
http://www.nber.org/papers/w24701
Thomas R. Tørsløv, Ludvig S. Wier & Gabriel Zucman
By exploiting new macroeconomic data known as foreign affiliates statistics, we show that affiliates of foreign multinational firms are an order of magnitude more profitable than local firms in low-tax countries. By contrast, affiliates of foreign multinationals are less profitable than local firms in high-tax countries. Leveraging this differential profitability, we estimate that close to 40% of multinational profits are shifted to tax havens globally. We analyze how the location of corporate profits would change if all countries adopted the same effective corporate tax rate, keeping global profits and investment constant. Profits would increase by about 15% in high-tax European Union countries, 10% in the United States, while they would fall by 60% in today’s tax havens. We provide a new international database of GDP, trade balances, and factor shares corrected for profit shifting, showing that the rise of the corporate capital share is significantly under-estimated in high-tax countries.
Insert Irish national anthem here.
This is obviously a big problem, given the budgetary strains faced across the OECD. We can’t expect private firms to correct the problem, so it’s up to governments.
At last, we may have found a use for trade sanctions as a negotiating tool.
Trump promised lower real interest rates and an investment boom. Seems we got the opposite. And the FED is in no mood to give Trump what he craves.
How much of this is simply less demand for US government debt?
Would be nice to see this side by side with the spread of TIPS vs regular treasuries.
Here’s tens vs TIPS:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XMFX
The most recent day’s data are missing, ’cause this is FRED. Hit the “fullscreen” button on the lower right for a better look.
Thanks
Not coincidentally:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leopold-aschenbrenners-hedge-fund-is-facing-steep-ai-losses.html
Long-AI/short-conventional-tech hedge fund blows up.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the sky is falling for the AI boom, but is symptomatic of the end of booms. Rising borrowing costs make leveraged positions less sustainable.
why would you invest billions with a 24 year old with no trading experience who got fired from his job in AI?
Two things that are not news to anyone who pays attention – Republicans shout to the heavens that Democrats are all socialists and that’s BAD! Here’s a recent take on the felon-in-chief and his minions doing just that:
https://jacobin.com/2026/07/socialism-mamdani-trump-vance-rubio
The other thing we all know is that Republicans, and conservatives of a certain stripe, love socialism for the rich. Bailing out bankers but not home owners, prison for casual drug use, but not for for white-collar crime.
Under the felon administration, there’s a new element of socialism, not the normal socialism for the rich. The felon is a “commanding heights” statist. And he’s at it again:
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/6000186-commerce-ai-chips-stakes/
“Commerce’s CHIPS Research and Development Office signed letters of intent with seven companies to provide a combined $874 million in federal funding under the landmark CHIPS and Science Act…” and…
‘The Department will receive a minority, non-controlling equity stake in each company as a condition for receiving the funds to enhance the return for the U.S. taxpayer,” NIST wrote.’
Radical socialism, but nothing for the poor or middle class.
Let’s go back to 1962 when Reagan told us Medicare would lead to SOCIALISM. Anything that gets in the way of massive tax cuts for billionaires is a Commie plot.