If you thought the US-Iran war was effectively over, if you thought USMCA was safe, if you thought no more trade surprises, well think again:

Figure 1: panel a: Economic policy uncertainty; panel b: trade policy uncertainty; panel c: Geopolitical risk – actions; panel d: VIX, all standardized 1/1/2014-1/19/2025. Units are “standard deviations” from mean. Source: policyuncertainty.com for panel a, Iacoviello [1] [2] for panels b and c; CBOE via FRED for panel d.