Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employment.

Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), GDPNow nowcast of 7/10 (light blue box), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2026Q1 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/2026 release), and author’s calculations. 

Figure 2: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls, using experimental controls for 2025 (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (light green), real retail sales, CPI deflated (black), freight services indexes (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED,  Philadelphia Fed, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2026Q1 3rd release, and author’s calculations.

GDPNow is currently nowcasting 4% q/q AR growth (2.3% for GS), but “core GDP” (final sales to private domestic purchasers) is tracking much slower growth, 2.6% growth q/q AR (compared to 3.9% in Q2 (prelim.)).

Figure 3: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (blue), GDPNow implied (light blue square), and 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.