“Core GDP” Upwardly Revised

Core GDP, final sales ex net exports and government, was revised upward from 3.9% to 4.2%, even if headline GDP growth was not noticeably revised up. That means domestic aggregate demand momentum remains in place.

Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers, 2nd release (bold black), advance release (gray), GDPNow (light blue square), and August Survey of Professional Forecasters median (blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. SPF calculated as simple sum of rea consumption and investment.  Source: BEA 2026Q2 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia  Fed, and author’s calculations. 

The Atlanta Fed nowcast implies 2.9% growth in Q3, down from 4.2%.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *