Maybe:

Figure 1: Imports of computers, computer accessories and semiconductors (blue, left log scale), and investment in informationn equipment and software (red, right log scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, 2026Q2 advance release, and author’s calculations.

Over this period, one can reject at the 6% level the null hypothesis that the growth rate of imports doesn’t Granger cause the growth rate of investment, but not the reverse. Interestingly, once lagged imports do not seem to correlate with investment, so imports do not seem to be a reliable leading indicator at the quarterly frequency.

That being said, it’s interesting to consider imports of computers, peripherals, and semiconductors at the monthly frequency (in nominal terms):

Figure 2: Imports of computers, peripherals, and semiconductors, mn.$/month, s.a. Source: BEA.

For now, the peak has occurred in April.