Trade Deficit Upside Surprise by $18bn

Goods trade deficit larger than before the election. So much for tariffs reducing goods imports relative to pre tariff.

Figure 1: Goods trade balance, BoP basis (black), Census basis (red), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), all in mn.$ s.a. Source: BEA via FRED, Census, and author’s calculations.

Goods imports are rising.

Figure 2: Goods imports (black),  BoP basis through April, Census basis thereafter, all in mn.$ s.a. Source: BEA via FRED, Census, and author’s calculations.

Census basis is about 2bn more than BoP basis, in May and June, so a small difference.

2 thoughts on “Trade Deficit Upside Surprise by $18bn”

  1. pgl

    Kevin Hassett will tell us manufacturing employment is up. He gets this from a study by Bruce Hall and Natalia Harp.

    1. joseph

      Oops, too late. Today the BLS released the preliminary benchmark revisions for March 2026 showing minus 67,000 manufacturing jobs.

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