Conference Board index registers 81.9 vs consensus 89.2 (and previous 88.6). It’s currently three standard deviations below mean.
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: U.Michigan, Gallup, Conference Board, Cummings and Tedeschi (2024), and author’s calculations.
From the release:
“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”
The sharp deterioration in expectations is shown in this graph:
Regarding family finances, the current measure indicates a switch in outlook in September:
The good-bad differential has gone negative for the first time since 2022.
No worries.
Trump’s ban on $1 billion of Canadian imports is taking effect just in time to rescue the markets, the economy, and consumer confidence.
Superintelligence!
JOLTS data show openings fell in August:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Z6Bz
The Conference Board “jobs plentiful” index also fell in today’s data.
The recovery in openings that began in Q1 has died. That recovery was consistent with the August improvement in net hiring seen in the establishment survey. Friday, we’ll get a look at September payroll data to see whether that improvement persists, or even survives revisions. First, ADP hiring data are due tomorrow.
Secretary Bessent testifying before Congress last week:
Rep. Himes: “When the American people see consumer sentiment lose 20 points since the beginning of the Trump administration, you have a political problem.”
Bessent: “There’s a survey problem because Democrats are now poisoning the survey.”
So, Professor, we have to ask, are you poisoning your readers with poisoned data as Bessent charges? Or is Bessent upset that Americans are saying exactly what they feel and it isn’t just Democrats?
Reality has a well-known liberal bias.
So do Democrats, apparently! Correlation or… causation?
Liberals have a well-known reality bias.
So…Bessent (et al) don’t think Democrats should have a voice in public opinion polling? How about other kinds of polling? Like on November 3rd?
Seems like this administration has done everything it can to keep anyone who doesn’t support them from speaking, voting, reporting the news, protesting, running public institutions.
One thing you can say for them – they don’t hide what they think, even when their thoughts are utterly corrupt.
It would be so much easier to get good pool number if you just exclude anybody from the pools who give the wrong answer.