Data through 9/7 from the EIA:
Source: EIA via FRED. Black + denotes November Brent futures as of 9/9/2026, 2pm CT.
The black “+” above is the near month futures price. Cash as of today is $97.87. Regardless of how you take it, the price is up.
NYMEX futures as of 2pm CT, at $101.47/bbl.
If Brent settles at $100/bbl in September (a 9.8% increase over August), then expect diesel to increase by about 8%, from $5.46 to $5.91 (using elasticity in changes of about 0.84, relevant over the last 5 months).
The U.S. has attacked five Iranian tankers; the war is now escalating, day by day. The felon-in-chief assures us the war will end immediately after the election. Uh huh. He also said it would only last 4 days, that the Ukraine war and the Gaza genocide would end as soon as he was elected, that inflation and mortgage rates would fall once he was back in office, that we wouldn’t get involved in foreign wars, that manufacturing jobs would come back, that foreigners would pay the cost of tariffs…
Iran wants to weaken the felon’s party in the mid-terms, yes, but not as some sort of personal affront to the felon. Iran has actual goals, and unconditional opening of Hormuz seems at odds with those goals, no matter what happens in the election.
Given the daily escalation in the trade war with Canada, the escalation in the Persian Gulf seems less intended to serve U.S. interests than a reflection of the felon’s emotional state.
By the way, diesel futures are up 5.4% today, to a record high.
Treasury has announced its securities buyback schedule:
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/treasury-securities-buybacks/buybacks-operations
Rather than doubling buybacks of long-end debt, as earlier suggested, the schedule allows for a tripling, from $2 billion per round to $6 billion. So of course, the 10-year yield rose to its highest level in three years. Fed funds futures pushed the model estimate for June 2027 to 3 rate hikes from 2.
I guess it’s time to send in the Marines and close all the ports. ‘Cause that’s how markets work.
I thought Kevin Warsh made a big announcement we weren’t telegraphing these big announcements any more and that “Mr. Market” would magically notify us all?? How’s that going anyway?? I’m so “confused” now.
I just hope Warsh and Bessent don’t start rubbing D**ks together behind the tree during grade school recess, or it could be bad.
Modal estimate not model. Sorry.
Diesel prices have been impressive since the start of Trump’s war/operation/liberation/victory with Iran. It’s going to be a tough winter in New England for those people who still burn oil.
Bessent is a like a kid peeing on a forest fire. If I were a Fed governor I would be advocating a 50bp hike at the next meeting.