Note that CPI growth accelerates post tariffs, but most profoundly, post-war. Health premiums under ACA have risen.

Figure 1: CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast of 11/4 (blue), implied CPI from Michigan year ahead expectations (light blue square), AIER Everyday Price Index (red), all 2024M01=1.00. Orange vertical line at “Liberation Day”; Vertical green line at start of US-Iran war. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, U.Michigan, American Institute for Economic Research, and author’s calculations. 

Figure 2: Case Shiller 20 city house price index (blue, left scale), ACA marketplace average health care premium (red, left scale), both 2024M01=1.0; 30 year mortgage rate, % (green, right scale).  Source: S&P, KFF, Freddie Mac. 

Often, one can’t point to executive branch or legislative branch policies as the cause for macroeconomic developments. However, as Mr. Trump noted today, prices did rise in response to the war’s execution. The war, plus the One Big Beautiful Bill’s borrowing implications, have in part raised the mortgage rate. And the rise in ACA premiums — both current and incipient — can be laid directly to Mr. Trump’s (and the Republican congressional majorities) signature legislative achievement, the OBBBA.