A colleague calls my attention to the fact that Excel 2007 is prone to a curious arithmetic miscalculation.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Yes, housing can go down even more
Today’s Census Bureau report on the number of new homes sold in August provides our first clear data for the impact on the housing market of the financial turmoil that began August 9. It is not a pretty sight.
More troubles for housing
New data released today portend continued weakness for housing.
Money creation and the Federal Reserve
There seem to be some misconceptions about the monetary consequences of actions that the Federal Reserve has taken to address liquidity needs.
Forward rates and inflation expectations
Forward rates on Treasury bonds tell an interesting story about the market’s reaction to the Fed’s interest rate cut on Tuesday.
50 it is
For the first time in 5 years, markets were actually unsure what the Fed was going to do, with yesterday’s fed funds options calling it an even chance that the Fed would settle for a 25-basis-point cut or go all the way to 50. Capital Chronicle had prepared amusing posters as to just how to interpret a 25-basis-point as opposed to a 50-basis-point cut. Fifty it was, disappointing perhaps knzn who wanted a 175-basis-point cut, but delighting economic researchers like Refet Gurkaynak and Eric Swanson who both emailed me their high spirits at finally getting another data point for what happens when the Fed surprises the markets.
Economic indicators of success in Iraq
Some economists have been interpreting economic developments as shedding light on the success of the military surge in Iraq. I think one needs to use a bit of caution in drawing conclusions from such evidence.
Catch the wave
I keep trying to warn my friends in the Federal Reserve about the tsunami that’s coming their way.
The commercialization of space
Google seems to be thinking big.
OPEC production quotas
How should we interpret yesterday’s announcement from OPEC?