Most pundits had one of two reactions to the recent analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates about the prospects for global oil supplies over the next five to fifteen years. Some analysts took the CERA report as confirmation that concerns about peaking world oil production have been misplaced. Others dismissed the CERA findings as completely without merit. I would urge anyone who had either of these two reactions to take a second look at some of the issues.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Investigating charges of Medi-Cal fraud
There are some obvious steps we could take to make sure that state and federal contributions for medical assistance are spent as effectively as possible.
The under-reported good news about productivity
If you focus too much on the latest statistics and speculation about what could go wrong, it’s easy to lose sight of some very important long-term trends. The solid growth of U.S. productivity is one piece of very good news that’s not getting sufficient attention.
Record auto sales for July
U.S. light-vehicle sales for July were the highest of any month in history.
Limitations of the Hirsch report on peak oil
Here’s a prime example of what I complain about in some of the discussions about how to deal with peak oil.
Is there a danger that the Fed will fall behind the inflation curve?
Both Macroblog and Capital
Spectator raise the prospect today that rising long-term yields might mean that the Fed
waited too long before trying to stamp out the cinders of an incipient inflation fire. I would
suggest instead that the increase in long-term yields over the last few months is the natural
development that we expect to see in a situation of Fed tightening and has little to do with
inflationary expectations.
Peak oil for skeptical economists
I earlier
attempted to explain some basic economic perspectives on oil depletion to those who usually
think about the issue from the vantage point of other disciplines. Now I’d like to attempt the
no less perilous task of carrying water the other way across the street, describing to
economists who may find themselves skeptical of the claims made about “peak oil” what I regard
to be some useful insights from geologists and engineers to which some of us have perhaps paid
insufficient attention. As a skeptic and an economist myself, perhaps I’m qualified for that
mission.
Update on Kelo in California
New developments on the implications of the Supreme Court’s Kelo decision for California.
When should we worry about the yield curve?
The slope of the yield curve is likely to become an increasingly bearish indicator as this year progresses, and recent changes in the calculation of the index of leading economic indicators should not be interpreted as in any way denying that fact.
New highs for oil
Why did oil prices make new highs this week?