I earlier
attempted to explain some basic economic perspectives on oil depletion to those who usually
think about the issue from the vantage point of other disciplines. Now I’d like to attempt the
no less perilous task of carrying water the other way across the street, describing to
economists who may find themselves skeptical of the claims made about “peak oil” what I regard
to be some useful insights from geologists and engineers to which some of us have perhaps paid
insufficient attention. As a skeptic and an economist myself, perhaps I’m qualified for that
mission.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Update on Kelo in California
New developments on the implications of the Supreme Court’s Kelo decision for California.
When should we worry about the yield curve?
The slope of the yield curve is likely to become an increasingly bearish indicator as this year progresses, and recent changes in the calculation of the index of leading economic indicators should not be interpreted as in any way denying that fact.
New highs for oil
Why did oil prices make new highs this week?
Wall Street Journal discussion of peak oil
The Wall Street Journal Online today features a
discussion I had about peak oil with Robert
Kaufmann, professor of geography at Boston University. Here are some excerpts.
Further thoughts about the latest economic statistics
I’ve had a little more time to ponder the meaning of some of the economic data released last
week, and here’s what I’ve come up with.
Which came first: the savings chicken or the deficit egg?
David Altig at Macroblog raises some
very thoughtful questions about the relation between the drop in the U.S. saving rate and the
current account deficit.
New GDP data and recession probabilities
The Bureau of Economic Analysis today
released its advance estimates for the second quarter, reporting real GDP growth of 3.4%, implying
a very slight increase in the recession probability index to 4.7%.
Time for optimism about Social Security
Precisely because several of the initiatives on Social Security seem to have stalled, the
time may be ripe for some real progress to be made.
Why the Fed needs to slow down
The Fed has promised to keep on raising interest rates at a “measured pace.” I just prefer
they’d measure their pace a little more slowly.