I’m a little late getting to this (by standards of cyberspace time anyway), but I wanted to comment on Monday’s announcement about the Nobel prize in economics.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Is another U.S. recession a ‘done deal’?
Today we’re pleased to feature a guest contribution from Michael Dueker, chief economist at Russell Investments and formerly an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Dueker is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. Econbrowser readers may remember that in February 2008 Dueker correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast. In a depths-of-recession piece from December 2008, he predicted in this forum that the recession would last until July or August of 2009, but that employment growth would not resume until March of 2010. We asked Mike to share the latest macroeconomic predictions from the Dueker Business Cycle Index model, subject to the disclaimer that the content does not constitute investment advice or projections of the stock market or any specific investment.
Slow growth continues
The stock market has looked scary. But economic indicators suggest U.S. growth is continuing.
Monetary policy and democracy
Should presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks have a vote on the FOMC, the policy-making committee of the Federal Reserve?
Links for 2011-09-28
Social anthropologist David Graeber claims that barter economies never operate the way that economists assume.
James Kahn and Robert Rich worry that the U.S. has entered a phase of weak productivity growth.
Matt O’Brien
(hat tip: Mark Thoma) wonders why Republicans have become so hostile towards the Federal Reserve.
Hal Cole and Lee Ohanian debate Paul Krugman on the recovery from the Great Depression.
Effects of operation twist
Changing behavior of crude oil futures prices
I’ve just finished a new research paper with my former student (and now University of Chicago Professor) Cynthia Wu. In our new paper, we study how increased purchases of crude oil futures contracts by financial investors may have affected the prices on those contracts.
More thoughts on peak oil
In Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, gave his explanation of what’s wrong with peak oil. Here’s why I don’t find his analysis altogether convincing.
What could America be good at?
A vision of what American economic growth over the next decade could look like might also help us address our immediate economic problems.
What do low government bond yields signify?
Brad DeLong and
Tyler Cowen point to an interesting exchange in the Financial Times.