Last week’s new economic data began with a personal income and outlays report which suggested slower consumption growth. But the numbers released Friday are a little more encouraging.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Consumption spending slowing down
Guess what: rising energy prices are taking a toll on consumers.
Update on Japan
A few quick links:
- Toll of dead and missing is in the tens of thousands, with hundreds of thousands still in temporary shelters.
- Dangerous reactor situation persists as evacuation area broadened.
- Automakers face supply problems.
- Impressive photos of rapid road repair.
- Hideaki Akaiwa: a hero’s epic told in a modern style.
Commodity prices in pictures
A few graphs I found interesting.
Price dynamics
A dominant class of economic theories is built on the assumption that prices respond only sluggishly to new economic conditions. It’s an interesting challenge to try to reconcile that premise with what we see in the data.
More on Japan
I wanted to add a few quick additional comments to Ilan Noy’s reflections on the possible economic implications of the tragedy in Japan.
2011 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
If you’re not too busy forecasting oil prices and the stock market, try your hand at the 2011 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge. All you have to do is go to the Econbrowser group at ESPN, do some minor registering to create a free ESPN account if you haven’t used that site before, and make your picks for the winners of each game. Just make sure you complete your entry before Thursday, because the Econbrowser group only allows predictions before the tournament begins.
Consumers see bad news
The Reuters-Michigan survey of consumer sentiment registered a decline from 77.5 in February to a preliminary reading of 68.2 in March. That’s the biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis in October 2008, and wipes out the nice gains of the last four months to put us back where we were in October 2010.
What will Saudi Arabia do?
One key question in determining the impact of instability in Libya and elsewhere on world oil markets is how much other countries can and will increase production to offset the shortfall. Here I review the critical role of Saudi Arabia in past disruptions and discuss the current situation.
The 25 best financial blogs
Time magazine has a list of the 25 best financial blogs, in which they included blog reviews written by other bloggers. Here’s what I said about my favorite blog:
If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I’ve followed him closely ever since, and I don’t know if he’s ever been wrong. My advice is, if you’ve come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you’d be wise to think it over again!