The Federal Reserve reported Friday that its index of industrial production fell another 0.5% in April, after having fallen 1.7% in March. Some analysts took comfort in the fact that at least the rate of decrease has slowed. But any decrease means we’re producing less than we did the previous month, and recovery requires growth, not a slower rate of decline.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Where’s my recovery, dude?
A couple of disappointments in this week’s data.
Tracking the recession
Here are links to perspectives from others on where the economy stands at the moment.
Inflation and relative prices
There are persuasive reasons why we’d be better off today with an inflation rate higher than what we’ve seen over the last six months. But while a uniform expansion that raised all wages and prices by the same amount would be helpful, what the Fed could actually achieve in the present situation may be something less desirable.
This shoot is definitely growing bigger and greener
The Labor Department reported today that seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 34,000 to 601,000 for the most recent available week, resulting in a reduction of the 4-week average for this series for the fourth consecutive week in a row.
Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Index
Dow Jones has begun publication of a new Economic Sentiment Index, which is based on a text mining analysis of five million news articles referencing the U.S. economy since 1990, rating words such as “recession” and “depression” as negative and “recovery” and “rebound” as positive.
Auto woes open a new chapter
April sales of light vehicles manufactured in North America were down by about a third from the values seen a year ago. And a year ago we were already seeing recession-level values for auto sales.
Further progress for initial claims for unemployment insurance
The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 14,000 during the most recent available week. That brings the 4-week average down for the third consecutive week and puts it 3.3% below the peak reached April 9.
Good economic news?
Today’s GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
Links for 2009-04-28
Washington University Professor James Morley on typical recession shapes and why they suggest we might see a strong recovery.
Harvard Professor Lucian Bebchuk on how to buy troubled assets while avoiding some of the problems pointed out by many analysts.
Oil 101 looks like a useful new book by commodity trader Morgan Downey.
And the Shadow Open Market Committee is back in business.