Author Archives: James_Hamilton

Link to JEC video

The Joint Economic Committee has now posted a video of yesterday’s hearing on oil and the economy. My statement starts at about 11 minutes.

Rising world oil demand and the U.S. economy

This morning, the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress took up the implications of rising world oil demand for the U.S. economy. I was invited to participate along with Daniel Yergin, Co-Founder and Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

I have some more discussion at the Washington Post as well as the following links:

The deterioration continues

The Federal Reserve reported Friday that its index of industrial production fell another 0.5% in April, after having fallen 1.7% in March. Some analysts took comfort in the fact that at least the rate of decrease has slowed. But any decrease means we’re producing less than we did the previous month, and recovery requires growth, not a slower rate of decline.

Continue reading →

Where’s my recovery, dude?

A couple of disappointments in this week’s data.

Continue reading →

Tracking the recession

Here are links to perspectives from others on where the economy stands at the moment.

Continue reading →

Inflation and relative prices

There are persuasive reasons why we’d be better off today with an inflation rate higher than what we’ve seen over the last six months. But while a uniform expansion that raised all wages and prices by the same amount would be helpful, what the Fed could actually achieve in the present situation may be something less desirable.

Continue reading →

This shoot is definitely growing bigger and greener

The Labor Department reported today that seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 34,000 to 601,000 for the most recent available week, resulting in a reduction of the 4-week average for this series for the fourth consecutive week in a row.

Continue reading →

Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Index

Dow Jones has begun publication of a new Economic Sentiment Index, which is based on a text mining analysis of five million news articles referencing the U.S. economy since 1990, rating words such as “recession” and “depression” as negative and “recovery” and “rebound” as positive.

Continue reading →

Auto woes open a new chapter

April sales of light vehicles manufactured in North America were down by about a third from the values seen a year ago. And a year ago we were already seeing recession-level values for auto sales.

Continue reading →

Further progress for initial claims for unemployment insurance

The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 14,000 during the most recent available week. That brings the 4-week average down for the third consecutive week and puts it 3.3% below the peak reached April 9.

Continue reading →

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Author Archives: James_Hamilton

Link to JEC video

Rising world oil demand and the U.S. economy

The deterioration continues

Where’s my recovery, dude?

Tracking the recession

Inflation and relative prices

This shoot is definitely growing bigger and greener

Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Index

Auto woes open a new chapter

Further progress for initial claims for unemployment insurance