April sales of light vehicles manufactured in North America were down by about a third from the values seen a year ago. And a year ago we were already seeing recession-level values for auto sales.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Further progress for initial claims for unemployment insurance
The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 14,000 during the most recent available week. That brings the 4-week average down for the third consecutive week and puts it 3.3% below the peak reached April 9.
Good economic news?
Today’s GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
Links for 2009-04-28
Washington University Professor James Morley on typical recession shapes and why they suggest we might see a strong recovery.
Harvard Professor Lucian Bebchuk on how to buy troubled assets while avoiding some of the problems pointed out by many analysts.
Oil 101 looks like a useful new book by commodity trader Morgan Downey.
And the Shadow Open Market Committee is back in business.
Oil shocks and recessions
Here I provide some more background on the relation between oil price increases and economic recessions.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 27,000 in the most recent available week. Although that’s a disappointing development, it’s still a small enough increase to allow the 4-week average to fall for the second week in a row. Since that declining 4-week average is one of the few encouraging pieces of news in an otherwise discouraging economic landscape, I wanted to take a closer look at just how significant a statistical signal it really sends.
Robert DeYoung on payday loans
I thought this was an interesting editorial in Tuesday’s WSJ.
Update on the latest economic indicators
Some good news, some bad, in the indicators we follow this week.
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
Last weekend I attended an excellent conference on business cycles hosted by UC Riverside (program details here). Among the many interesting presentations was an update from University of Maryland Professor Boragan Aruoba on the index of current business conditions that he developed with Professor Frank Diebold of the University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve economist Chiara Scotti.
Mortgage fraud
Why sell crack when taking money from a careless lender is so much easier and more profitable?