With all the excitement in financial markets, I almost missed this story on the bailout for automakers.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Understanding the TED spread
One measure that is being used to summarize the strain in financial markets is the TED spread. This is calculated as the gap between 3-month LIBOR (an average of interest rates offered in the London interbank market for 3-month dollar-denominated loans) and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. The size of this gap presumably reflects some sort of risk or liquidity premium. I was interested to break the TED spread down into identifiable components to try to get a better understanding of what may be responsible for its recent behavior.
Gross domestic income and recessions
The “final” values for 2008:Q2 GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday were more disappointing than the earlier estimates. Still, the 2.8% annual growth rate for real GDP that we’re now told characterized the second quarter doesn’t sound like a recession. Or does it?
What happened to oil markets on Monday?
Here’s how it was reported, for example, in the Wall Street Journal:
Reaction to the Wall Street bailout and frenzied last-minute trading in the oil market sent crude prices soaring by more than $16 a barrel, the biggest one-day jump ever.
The late-day spike, which shoved oil up 16% to $120.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, offered an illustration of Wall Street’s hard-to-predict moves amid broad market turmoil.
And here’s what really happened.
Brad DeLong on Bernanke and Paulson
Brad DeLong had some insightful and amusing observations on the priorities of Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. I can’t resist reproducing Brad’s comments with some annotations of my own.
Paulson bailout
Let me begin with the point on which I am in complete agreement with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke– it is hard to overstate just how scary this week’s developments in financial markets could be.
Scott Irwin takes down Michael Masters
Econbrowser is pleased to host another contribution from Scott Irwin, who holds the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois. Today Scott offers a critique of a recent report by Michael Masters on the role of commodity speculation.
Effects of Hurricane Ike on oil and gas markets
As Hurricane Ike took over the Gulf of Mexico, I watched with unusual interest, since I had been scheduled to fly through Houston to give a lecture in Baton Rouge on Friday. We had to cancel that visit to LSU, which left me to contemplate the consequences of Hurricane Ike for oil and gas markets from the comfort of my warm, snug home in San Diego.
We’re #2?
Or so says Palgrave Econolog’s rankings of popular economics blogs (hat tip: Newmark’s Door).
A rebound for autos?
August auto sales were less dismal than July. But don’t uncork the champagne quite yet.